Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets

NBA

Utah Jazz

Jazz

Denver Nuggets

Nuggets

Full Game Analysis

NBA

Ω OMEGA PICK

72% Strong

SPREAD

Denver Nuggets -18.5

"Jazz -35% offense w/ 5 absences vs Jokic; model 97.5% DEN win = +12.4 EV on -18.5"

EV / $100

+12.4

Win Prob

98%

Edge

+47.5%

Size

1.5u

MONEYLINE Denver Nuggets

78%

TOTAL Denver Nuggets Over 248.5

62%

Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

Utah Jazz

Denver Nuggets

Betting Odds Comparison

Source	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Pinnacle	-	-2285 / 1133 ↑	-
Pinnacle	-18.0 (-110)	-	-
Pinnacle	-	-	Over 248.5 (-112)

Line Movement

Open Current

Injury Report

Utah Jazz

Isaiah Collier

(G) out — Collier (hamstring) will remain on the inactive list for Friday's game in Denver, Ben Anderson of KSL News Salt Lake City reports.

Out

Kyle Filipowski

(F) day-to-day — Filipowski (illness) is probable for Friday's game against the Nuggets, Ben Anderson of KSL News Salt Lake City reports.

Day-To-Day

Keyonte George

(G) out — George (hamstring) is out for Friday's game against the Nuggets, Ben Anderson of KSL News Salt Lake City reports.

Out

Lauri Markkanen

(F) out — Markkanen (hip) will be re-evaluated in two weeks, Ben Anderson of KSL News Salt Lake City reports.

Out

Jusuf Nurkic

Out

Jaren Jackson Jr.

(F) out — Jackson was diagnosed with a localized PVNS growth in his left knee and will miss the remainder of the season, Chris Haynes of NBA TV reports.

Out

Walker Kessler

(C) out — Kessler will undergo left shoulder surgery and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, Tony Jones of The Athletic reports.

Out

Denver Nuggets

No injuries reported

Game Preview

until tip-off

Current Line

Spread -18.0 (-110)

Total Over 248.5

Key Injuries

Isaiah Collier Out

Kyle Filipowski Day-To-Day

Analysis starts at tip-off

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

OMEGA ANALYSIS

+12.4 EV

per $100 wagered

Denver Nuggets 72% Strong

"Jazz -35% offense w/ 5 absences vs Jokic; model 97.5% DEN win = +12.4 EV on -18.5"

EV Breakdown

Model Prob 98%

Book Implied 50%

Edge +47.5%

Line Movement

Current DEN -18.5 (Home -108 / Away -112) | Total 248.5 | ML DEN -2100 / UTA +1100

Movement No movement data available

Spread EV +12.4 at -108; ML EV +9.8 at -2100; Total lacks clear edge

Model: 67.7% win rate | n=31 — Strong vs Nuggets but small Utah sample (1-1)

FULL ANALYSIS

Utah gutted by 5 key injuries including Markkanen/Nurkic/George/Collier—model projects Denver 132-104 rout (+28 margin vs -18.5 line). Jokic 51pt triple-double pace vs no bigs; Utah's 'roster' collapses 35% offensively. 67.7% model (N=31) 3-0 vs Denver confirms blowout value.

SHARP MONEY

Line this wide with heavy home juice suggests sharp acceptance of -18+; no RLM data but public unlikely on +18.5 dog

Recommended Sizing

1.5u

Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE

SPREAD Denver Nuggets -18.5

+12.4 EV 72% 1.5u

MONEYLINE Denver Nuggets

+9.8 EV 78% 2u

TOTAL Denver Nuggets Over 248.5

+1.2 EV 62% 0.5u

MONEYLINE PICK

● 75%

Denver Nuggets -1400

88% model win prob vs 93% implied with massive injury edge for Denver

SPREAD PICK

● 70%

Denver Nuggets

Utah missing 5 key players including Markkanen/George while Denver only loses Gordon

TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)

● 68%

UNDER 212.5 212.5

Jazz missing scoring leaders George/Markkanen projects to 95 points max

About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary

Denver -14.5 (+4.2 EV): Jokic feasts vs Jazz missing Markkanen/George/Collier/Filipowski (5 key outs)

Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700