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MLB
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +54.7% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 1.5
"Over 8.5 +15.2pp edge (65% posterior, MC/omega 20+ total) + CIN ML +8.3pp despite sharp/whale PIT"
EV / $100
+14.5
Win Prob
51%
Edge
+0.6%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Cincinnati Reds None
51%
TOTAL over 8.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$85503 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 67 trades Kalshi: 1 trades Largest: $10651
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +136.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
33.6%
ML
197 / -197

Player Props Engine

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Cincinnati Reds

Pittsburgh Pirates

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -128 / 107 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -131 / 118 -
Value Line - -130 / 105 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (320) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (159) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-112)
De-Vigged Fair Value 171 / -171 -125 / 125 O/U -105 / 105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds

B
Brandon Williamson
(SP) 15-day IL — Williamson was removed from Wednesday's game against the Rockies with left shoulder fatigue, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Caleb Ferguson
(RP) 15-day IL — Ferguson (oblique) walked one and struck out one over a scoreless inning for Double-A Chattanooga on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
E
Eugenio Suarez
(3B) 10-day IL — Reds manager Terry Francona said Wednesday that Suarez's left oblique remains tender, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Graham Ashcraft
(RP) Bereavement — Ashcraft walked one and struck out one over a scoreless 10th inning to earn the save in Sunday's 7-4 win over Minnesota.
bereavement
H
Hunter Greene
(SP) 60-day IL — Greene (elbow) is playing catch from 110 feet and is about three weeks away from progressing to bullpen sessions, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
60-Day-IL
N
Nick Lodolo
(SP) 15-day IL — Lodolo (finger) will make his next rehab start Saturday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Connor Burns
(C) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
Josh Staumont
(RP) day-to-day — The Reds re-signed Staumont to a minor-league contract Dec. 30.
Day-To-Day
A
Alex Young
(RP) out — Young revealed in a post on his personal Instagram account that he underwent season-ending surgery on his left elbow March 31.
Out
C
Carson Spiers
(SP) out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out

Pittsburgh Pirates

J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Jones (elbow) struck out five over three perfect innings in his first rehab start with Single-A Bradenton on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jared Triolo
(SS) 10-day IL — Triolo (knee) went 3-for-4 with a home run, a walk, three RBI and an additional run Tuesday in a rehab game with Double-A Altoona.
10-Day-IL
S
Sean Sullivan
(SP) day-to-day — Sullivan owns a 5.87 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 11:5 K:BB in 7.2 innings over his three appearances since being promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis on June 10.
Day-To-Day
D
Dominic Fletcher
(RF) day-to-day — The Pirates reassigned Fletcher to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Clevinger
(RP) day-to-day — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (320)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Brandon Williamson 15-Day-IL
Caleb Ferguson 15-Day-IL
Jared Jones 60-Day-IL
Jared Triolo 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates

+14.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Cincinnati Reds 60% Lean
"Over 8.5 +15.2pp edge (65% posterior, MC/omega 20+ total) + CIN ML +8.3pp despite sharp/whale PIT"
51% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 51%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +0.6%
Line Movement
Current PIT -136 ML / CIN +113 / Total 8.5 (-110 est)
Movement No significant line movement detected
Positive EV on CIN ML (+8.3pp edge), strongest on total over (+15.2pp, 24.5 EV); ML/RL confirmed by calibrated
FULL ANALYSIS
Models fuse to 50.6% CIN ML posterior vs 42.4% implied (+8.3pp, 7.8 EV) but sharp 14.8% PIT spread/strong whale $85k home contradict to cap conf. Total mismatch huge: 65.2% over 8.5 posterior (+15.2pp, 24.5 EV) w/ MC 19.9/omega 22.5 proj scores. Injuries net PIT +1.3% but poor quality; no pitchers/weather reduces all conf.
SHARP MONEY
14.8% sharp edge on PIT spread + weak ML edge home; +54.7% EV on PIT spread vs retail
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cincinnati Reds 1.5
+14.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Cincinnati Reds None
+7.8 EV 51% 0u
TOTAL over 8.5
+24.5 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 51%
Cincinnati Reds 113
  • Bayesian posterior 50.6% vs market 42.4% (+8.3pp edge from low model agreement regime)
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Cincinnati Reds 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs implied PIT fave, MC margin -0.3 home (away covers +1.5 ~60%)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 8.5
  • Posterior 65.2% vs 50% (+15.2pp), MC proj 19.9 total/omega 22.5 vs market 8.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
CIN ML +113 +8.2pp Bayesian edge w/ $82k whales; over 8.5 +15pp (MC 20 runs)
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