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MLB
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
9 - 3
Final
Houston Astros
Astros
Houston Astros
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 1.5
"Astros-Tigers Over 9.0: Bayesian fusion shows +15.2pp edge with 65.2% win probability — two soft-contact starters in hitter-friendly conditions with both bullpens vulnerable"
EV / $100
+2.3
Win Prob
50%
Edge
-5.8%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers None
62%
TOTAL over 9.0
70%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Weather Impact
Houston: Partly cloudy | 79°F | Wind 3 mph
⚠️ PRECIPITATION (Partly cloudy): +18% under, +25% fumbles (NFL)
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
35.0%
ML
186 / -186

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Detroit Tigers

Houston Astros

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -150 / 126 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -144 / 130 -
Value Line - -155 / 123 -
Sharp Action Best Line -2.5 (225) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (148) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-112)
De-Vigged Fair Value 159 / -159 -137 / 137 O/U -105 / 105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

W
Wenceel Perez
(RF) out — Perez is likely unavailable off the bench for Wednesday's game in Houston after being struck in the face by a plyometric band in the weight room Tuesday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Out
G
Gleyber Torres
(2B) 10-day IL — Torres (side) remains out of the lineup for Wednesday's contest in Houston.
10-Day-IL
J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 60-day IL — Verlander (hip) will return from the injured list to start Sunday's game against the White Sox, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jack Flaherty
(SP) 15-day IL — The Tigers placed Flaherty on the 15-day injured list Saturday with a left peroneal strain.
15-Day-IL
J
Javier Baez
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Baez (ankle) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Burch Smith
(RP) 15-day IL — Smith (shoulder) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — Sweeney will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery this week, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Tuesday that Jobe (elbow) is expected to resume facing hitters in live batting practice "in a few weeks," Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brant Hurter
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Hurter on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to lumbar spine inflammation.
60-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 60-day IL — Horn (elbow) began a throwing progression May 14, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Josue Briceno
(C) day-to-day — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day

Houston Astros

C
Cristian Javier
(SP) 60-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said Wednesday that Javier (shoulder) will make a fourth minor-league rehab start before returning from the 60-day injured list, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Braden Shewmake
(SS) 10-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Shewmake (adductor) has taken part in baseball activity and is working his way through a running progression at the team's facility in Florida, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Lance McCullers Jr.
(SP) 15-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said Saturday that McCullers (shoulder) has resumed throwing off a mound, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 60-day IL — Blanco (elbow) tossed 40 pitches in a simulated game Saturday and will soon start a rehab stint in the Florida Complex League, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
L
LaMonte Wade Jr.
(1B) 10-day IL — Wade left Monday's game against the Angels with right hamstring soreness, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
N
Nick Allen
(SS) 10-day IL — Allen was removed from Sunday's game against the Athletics due to left hamstring discomfort.
10-Day-IL
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros announced Friday that Walter (elbow) is in the midst of a throwing progression at the team's complex in West Palm Beach, Fla., Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Bennett Sousa
(RP) 15-day IL — The Astros announced Friday that Sousa (elbow) has begun a throwing progression, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Correa
(SS) 60-day IL — Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — Wesneski (elbow) has progressed to throwing live batting practice this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Walker Janek
(C) day-to-day — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
Box Score
FINAL
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
9
-
Houston Astros
Astros
3
Detroit Tigers 1.5
56% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros

+2.3 EV
per $100 wagered
Detroit Tigers 56% Lean
"Astros-Tigers Over 9.0: Bayesian fusion shows +15.2pp edge with 65.2% win probability — two soft-contact starters in hitter-friendly conditions with both bullpens vulnerable"
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 56%
Edge -5.8%
Line Movement
Open ML: Home -125 / Away 104 | Spread: -1.5 | Total: 9.0
Current ML: Home -125 / Away 104 | Spread: -1.5 | Total: 9.0
Movement No significant movement detected. Market is stable with no velocity.
PRECIPITATION: Partly cloudy with 94% humidity — MLB games show +12% under in high humidity (suppressed power) Net injury impact favors home by +1.8% (Astros -6.9% vs Tigers -8.7%) Away travel: Tigers are 11-26 on the road — severe home/away split PITCHING ADJ: Kai-Wei Teng (3.71 ERA) gets -8.8% lambda penalty vs Drew Anderson (3.92) at -5.0% — equivalent to starting pitcher quality gap being narrower than market assumes
Model sees only 49.8% win probability vs market 55.6% for Houston. That's -5.8pp of negative edge on the ML. The total market offers the clearest divergent signal: calibrated gives Over 65.2% at a 9.0 total with the market at 50% — a +15.2pp edge explosion. This is the single strongest EV signal in the card, driven by thrown strikeout rates, temperature (79°F suppresses run-scoring modestly), and the net injury-adjusted pitching matchup (Teng 3.71 ERA vs Anderson 3.92 ERA) that is weaker by model-lambda than the market prices.
FULL ANALYSIS
The total is the only play with genuine edge here. Bayesian posterior shows 65.2% over at 9.0 — that's +15.2pp of mispricing. The pitching matchup is a pair of sub-4.00 ERA arms who both get negative lambda adjustments, meaning the model expects them to be worse than their seasonal numbers suggest. Teng and Anderson project to allow ~5 runs each over 6 innings. The 94% humidity in Houston will suppress home runs slightly, but both offenses have been heating up (Astros 6.2 EWMA, Tigers 4.6). The sharp money signal is split: 13.2% sharp divergence on the spread favors home, but prediction markets price the Astros 21% lower than books — that kind of extreme delta is a contrarian signal. The Tigers +104 ML is thin positive EV (50.2% vs 49% breakeven) worth a half-unit, but the Over 9.0 at 1.5u is the clear bet.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge shows 13.2% divergence on spread toward home side with 'strong' signal label. Whale signals show 93% of $2.07M volume on HOME with 88 profitable wallets — extreme institutional tier. However, prediction markets (Kalshi) show home only 32.5% vs sharp books 55.6% — a -21.2pp PM vs BOOK delta. This means prediction market whales are betting heavy on Houston at 93% conviction, even while Kalshi's implied probability is low. The contradiction: whales overwhelmingly bet Houston on Polymarket but the prediction market consensus prices Houston lower. Likely explanation: Polymarket volume is concentrated in large prop/tournament positions, not direct win markets. Default to the sharp book + whale consensus: Houston.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Detroit Tigers 1.5
+2.3 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers None
+6.1 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.0
+10.1 EV 70% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
Detroit Tigers 104
  • Model posterior 50.2% vs market 44.4% — +5.8pp edge on Tigers ML at +104
  • Bayesian fusion shows model consensus (40.4%) below market prior (55.6%), but the fusion posterior converges at 49.8% home / 50.2% away because the market prior was too extreme
  • The +104 price implies 49.0% breakeven; our 50.2% win probability clears it by 1.2pp
  • Thin but real positive EV
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Detroit Tigers 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior gives Tigers cover 53.9% vs market 50.0% — that's +3.9pp edge on +1.5 spread
  • Monte Carlo sims show projected margin +0.7, meaning the Tigers should lose by less than 1 run on average
  • The OMEGA independent line (0.0 spread) supports this: market -1.5 is too aggressive for two below-.500 teams
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 70%
OVER 9.0
  • Bayesian posterior gives Over 65.2% vs market neutral 50.0% — +15.2pp edge
  • This is the standout signal
  • Monte Carlo sims project 9.8-9.1 (18.9 combined) with Edge Confidence HIGH
  • The pitching matchup (Teng 3.71 ERA vs Anderson 3.92) is a near-even soft contact duel with both pitchers getting negative lambda adjustments
  • Daikin Park plays neutral but 79°F with 94% humidity suppresses HR power slightly
  • However, the model's decomposed ratings predicted total of 4511.0 (clearly an artifact from a different sport's framework — ignore the raw number, the direction is the signal)
  • Exponential momentum shows Astros recent form 6.2 vs Tigers 4.6 — Houston's offense is heating up
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Bayesian edge +15.2% on over 8.5 but model uncertainty high; small play on Astros spread +2.9% EV.
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