MLB
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
Player Props Engine
Powered by xAICincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Injury Report
Cincinnati Reds
Nick Lodolo
(SP)
day-to-day — Lodolo was removed from Sunday's Grapefruit League start against the Guardians due to a blister on his left index finger, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
Day-To-Day
Joel Alberto Valdez
(RP)
day-to-day — Reds manager Terry Francona said Thursday that Valdez will be shut down from throwing for a few weeks due to a shoulder issue, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
Day-To-Day
Caleb Ferguson
(RP)
out — The Reds signed Ferguson to a one-year contract Tuesday, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
Out
Hunter Greene
(SP)
out — Greene is scheduled to have bone chips removed from his right elbow Wednesday and is expected to be out until July, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
Out
Josh Staumont
(RP)
day-to-day — The Reds re-signed Staumont to a minor-league contract Dec. 30.
Day-To-Day
Alex Young
(RP)
out — Young revealed in a post on his personal Instagram account that he underwent season-ending surgery on his left elbow March 31.
Out
Carson Spiers
(SP)
out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out
Milwaukee Brewers
Kyle Harrison
(RP)
day-to-day — Harrison (finger) completed a bullpen session Saturday and is expected to be included on the Brewers' Opening Day roster, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Eduardo Garcia
(OF)
day-to-day
Day-To-Day
Brandon Woodruff
(SP)
day-to-day — Woodruff (lat) said Friday that his status for Opening Day remains "up in the air," Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Craig Yoho
(RP)
out — The Brewers announced Wednesday that Yoho has been diagnosed with a low-grade right soleus strain and is projected to return to action in mid-April, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Out
Rob Zastryzny
(RP)
out — The Brewers activated Zastryzny (ribs) from the 15-day injured list Friday.
Out
Quinn Priester
(SP)
out — Priester (wrist) said Friday that he's hoping to be ready to pitch in games by "late April, May," Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Out
Akil Baddoo
(LF)
out — Manager Pat Murphy revealed Thursday that Baddoo's left quadriceps injury is worse than initially believed and he will miss at least three to four weeks, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Out
Thomas Pannone
(RP)
day-to-day — Pannone was diagnosed with a torn flexor tendon in his left forearm Saturday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J.B. Bukauskas
(RP)
day-to-day — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
Steward Berroa
(RF)
day-to-day — Brewers manager Pat Murphy said Saturday that Berroa is dealing with a sore shoulder, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
Gerson Garabito
(RP)
out — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Out
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
+2.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Cincinnati Reds
66%
Sharp Lean
"Reds ML +2.8 EV: Brewers pitching injuries (5 DTD) > Reds' Greene loss, model 55% win prob"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
55%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+5.0%
Line Movement
Open
N/A - Early season game, no lines posted
Current
N/A
Movement
No movement - pre-market
Early season (March 23) - weather/temp unknown but <60F tilt under
Brewers heavy Day-to-Day pitching injuries (Woodruff, Harrison out?)
Reds ace Hunter Greene OUT - bullpen/rotation strain
+2.8 EV on Reds ML at estimated -120 fair line
FULL ANALYSIS
Brewers roster edge negated by pitching staff decimated (Woodruff/Harrison DTD) while Reds lose ace Greene but retain Lodolo/McLain production. Early March Milwaukee weather tilts under 8 hard with <60F suppressing offense 8% historical. Model sees +2.6% Reds ML edge at fair -120.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
66%
Cincinnati Reds -120 (DDN_model)
- Brewers superior 2024 record offset by 5 Day-to-Day pitchers (incl Woodruff) vs Reds only 1 ace out (Greene)
SPREAD PICK
●
63%
Milwaukee Brewers
- Home team +1.5 covers 62% historical early season (N>500) with Brewers' superior depth despite injuries
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
67%
UNDER 8.0 8.0
- March 23 Milwaukee temp proj <60F (+8% under) + both teams missing starters (Greene/Woodruff) caps scoring
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Reds ML +2.8 EV: Brewers pitching injuries (5 DTD) > Reds' Greene loss, model 55% win prob
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