Home › NBA › Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors
NBA
Sacramento Kings
Sacramento Kings
Kings
105 - 110
Final
Golden State Warriors
Warriors
Golden State Warriors
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Sacramento Kings Sacramento Kings +14.5
"Kings +675 ML +37.2 EV vs OMEGA 51% win prob; market -14.5 spread ignores model projecting GS -3 only"
EV / $100
+8.1
Win Prob
51%
Edge
+1.4%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Sacramento Kings None
66%
TOTAL under 234.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
-3.0
Edge: +11.5
Total
203.0
Edge: -31.5
Win Prob
51.4%
ML
-106 / 106

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Sacramento Kings

Golden State Warriors

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

Sacramento Kings

D
DeMar DeRozan
(G) day-to-day — DeRozan is out for Tuesday's game against the Warriors due to right hamstring soreness.
Day-To-Day
K
Keegan Murray
(F) out — Murray (ankle) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Warriors.
Out
R
Russell Westbrook
(G) out — Westbrook (toe) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Warriors.
Out
I
Isaiah Stevens
(G) out — The Kings list Stevens out for Sunday's game against the Nets due to right ankle soreness.
Out
D
Drew Eubanks
(F) out — Eubanks underwent successful surgery to repair a torn UCL in his left thumb Wednesday and he will miss the remainder of the season, Sean Cunningham of Fox 40 Sacramento reports.
Out
D
De'Andre Hunter
(F) out — Hunter is set to undergo season-ending eye surgery, Chris Haynes of NBA TV reports.
Out
D
Domantas Sabonis
(F) out — Sabonis underwent season-ending knee surgery Wednesday to repair a torn left meniscus, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Out
Z
Zach LaVine
(G) out — LaVine will undergo season-ending surgery on his right hand after the All-Star break, Chris Haynes of NBA TV reports.
Out

Golden State Warriors

W
Will Richard
(G) day-to-day — Richard (back) is doubtful for Thursday's game against the Lakers.
Day-To-Day
C
Charles Bassey
(C) day-to-day — Bassey (ankle) is questionable for Thursday's game against the Lakers.
Day-To-Day
G
Gui Santos
(F) day-to-day — Santos (pelvis) is questionable for Thursday's game against the Lakers.
Day-To-Day
L
LJ Cryer
(G) day-to-day — Cryer (illness) is probable for Thursday's game against the Lakers.
Day-To-Day
K
Kristaps Porzingis
(C) out — Porzingis (illness) is out for Thursday's game against the Lakers.
Out
S
Stephen Curry
(G) day-to-day — Curry (knee) is questionable for Thursday's game against the Lakers.
Day-To-Day
A
Al Horford
(C) out — Horford (calf) is "making good progress" toward a return and will be re-evaluated "early next week."
Out
Q
Quinten Post
(C) out — The Warriors announced Saturday that Post (foot) will be re-evaluated next week.
Out
M
Moses Moody
(G) out — Moody has been diagnosed with a torn patellar tendon in his left knee, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Out
J
Jimmy Butler III
(F) out — Butler underwent successful surgery Monday to repair a torn right anterior cruciate ligament.
Out
Box Score
FINAL
Sacramento Kings
Kings
105
-
Golden State Warriors
Warriors
110
Sacramento Kings +14.5
64% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors

+8.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Sacramento Kings 64% Sharp Lean
"Kings +675 ML +37.2 EV vs OMEGA 51% win prob; market -14.5 spread ignores model projecting GS -3 only"
51% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 51%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +1.4%
Line Movement
Current GS -14.5 / O/U 234.5
Movement No movement data
Kings +675 ML offers +37.2 EV vs OMEGA 51.4% win prob; market pricing Kings as 12.9% chance despite model edge
Model: 49.1% win rate | n=397 — NBA 195-202 (49.1% N=397); recent 7d poor but vs these teams strong (GS 16-8, SAC 13-8)
FULL ANALYSIS
Market has GS -14.5 despite OMEGA projecting -3 (103-100); Kings +675 ML is +37 EV vs 51% model win prob. Both teams crippled by injuries but MC sims show 49.4% Kings cover +14.5. Total 234.5 is 31pts over OMEGA 203; under has 4.2 EV with depleted rosters.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Sacramento Kings +14.5
+8.1 EV 64% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Sacramento Kings None
+37.2 EV 66% 1u
TOTAL under 234.5
+4.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 62%
Golden State Warriors -106
  • Monte Carlo home win 54.9% vs model ML breakeven 51.4%; profitable ML tier calibration
SPREAD PICK
● 60%
Golden State Warriors -3.0
  • Monte Carlo shows 47.9% home cover rate on -3 but omega expected margin +3.0 with medium edge confidence
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 203.0
  • Monte Carlo under 50.6% vs 50% breakeven on omega total 203.0
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Warriors ML -106 (+5.2 EV): MC 54.9% win vs 51.4% breakeven despite mutual injuries
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