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New York Mets
New York Mets
Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
Arizona Diamondbacks
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +44.1% EV LATE TO MARKET
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 2.2
"Dbacks +2.2 (56% cover, +7.5EV) as whales crush home vs juiced Mets line, MC 20 total torches 8"
EV / $100
+7.5
Win Prob
56%
Edge
+6.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
55%
TOTAL over 8.0
57%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.4% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$675318 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (73% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 229 trades Kalshi: 627 trades Largest: $90740
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
38.8%
ML
158 / -158

Player Props Engine

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New York Mets

Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 107 / -128 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 112 / -121 -
Value Line - 112 / -139 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-350) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-146) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-115)
De-Vigged Fair Value -139 / 139 117 / -117 O/U -109 / 109
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Mets

J
Joe Jacques
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — The Mets pulled Minter (lat) from his rehab assignment with Triple-A Syracuse on Wednesday due to left hip discomfort, Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Sunday that Kessinger sustained "a pretty significant injury" to his left hamstring and will need at least 8-12 weeks to recover, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
Out
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jorge Polanco
(1B) 10-day IL — Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said last Friday that Polanco (wrist/Achilles) has resumed performing baseball activities but is considered week-to-week in his recovery from a pair of injuries, SNY.tv reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kodai Senga
(SP) 15-day IL — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters that Senga (back) played catch Wednesday, and the right-hander is progressing in his recovery, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
15-Day-IL
N
Nick Burdi
(RP) day-to-day — The Red Sox reinstated Burdi (hip) from the injured list Saturday and optioned him to Triple-A Worcester.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Young
(1B) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee.
10-Day-IL
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Nunez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
J
Joey Gerber
(RP) 15-day IL — Gerber (finger) struck out two and allowed two hits over a scoreless inning during his rehab appearance Tuesday at Triple-A Syracuse.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronny Mauricio
(SS) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Mauricio (thumb) on the 10-day injured list Sunday.
10-Day-IL
J
Jose Rojas
(3B) day-to-day — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Luis Robert Jr.
(CF) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Robert on the 10-day injured list Thursday with a lumbar spine disc herniation.
10-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock (shoulder) said Sunday that he'll require surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome and could be sidelined for the remainder of the season, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
F
Francisco Lindor
(SS) 10-day IL — Lindor (calf) will wear a boot for the next week and remain shut down for at least three weeks, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL

Arizona Diamondbacks

K
Ketel Marte
(2B) day-to-day — Marte is not in the lineup for Friday's game against the Cubs.
Day-To-Day
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Jose M. Romero of the Arizona Republic reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
D
Derek Law
(RP) out — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.
Out
C
Carlos Santana
(1B) 10-day IL — Santana (thigh) could rejoin the Diamondbacks on Friday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jordan Lawlar
(LF) 60-day IL — Lawlar is doing as much baseball activity as possible without using his fractured right wrist, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tommy Henry
(RP) out — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.
Out
A
A.J. Vukovich
(CF) out — Vukovich is slashing .263/.333/.485 with 24 home runs, 20 steals on 29 attempts and a 28.4 percent strikeout rate in 115 games for Double-A Amarillo.
Out
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
Day-To-Day
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Puk (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and provided an update following the activity, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pavin Smith
(1B) 60-day IL — Smith (elbow) will take dry swings next week, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) is throwing from up to 120 feet on flat ground, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-350)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Joe Jacques Day-To-Day
A.J. Minter 15-Day-IL
Ketel Marte Day-To-Day
Corbin Burnes 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks

+7.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Arizona Diamondbacks 56% Lean
"Dbacks +2.2 (56% cover, +7.5EV) as whales crush home vs juiced Mets line, MC 20 total torches 8"
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +6.3%
Line Movement
Current Mets -2.2 / Dbacks +2.2 | Total 8.0 | ML Mets -139 / Dbacks +116
Movement No significant movement
Net injury edge to home (+2.8%)
+6.3pp edge on Dbacks +2.2 cover per calibrated
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion gives Dbacks +2.2 56.3% cover (+6.3pp EV) vs market -2.2, backed by extreme whale volume ($333k home) despite sharp away divergence. MC sims 19.9 total crushes 8.0 (65% over posterior) but totals WR 48.7% caps sizing. Injuries hit Mets harder (-9.7% vs -6.9%), net home edge in even Omega spread.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 18.9% on spread to Mets side despite public on home
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Arizona Diamondbacks 2.2
+7.5 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
+5.0 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+24.4 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Arizona Diamondbacks 116
  • Home ML posterior 48.6% vs 46.3% implied (+2.3pp edge); breakeven exceeded
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Arizona Diamondbacks 2.2
  • Bayesian posterior 56.3% home cover vs 50% implied (+6.3pp); Omega even spread vs market -2.2
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
OVER 8.0
  • Over posterior 65.2% vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC projects 19.9 total, Omega 22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Dbacks +2.2 (56% posterior +6.3pp edge) + over 8 (65% posterior) w/ extreme whales on home despite sharp away
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