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MLB
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
Miami Marlins
Marlins
Miami Marlins
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +58.2% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
MONEYLINE
Miami Marlins Miami Marlins None
"Marlins ML (56% our prob vs 52% model) backed by +2.8% injury edge + $746k extreme whales"
EV / $100
+2.8
Win Prob
56%
Edge
+6.0%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD Milwaukee Brewers 1.5
58%
TOTAL under 8.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.6% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on moneyline.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1129952 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (74% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 138 trades Kalshi: 1591 trades Largest: $189747

Player Props Engine

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Milwaukee Brewers

Miami Marlins

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -110 / -110 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -105 / -105 -
Value Line - -114 / -109 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (400) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (198) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value 216 / -216 -100 / -100 O/U 101 / -101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Milwaukee Brewers

K
Kyle Harrison
(SP) day-to-day — Harrison (knee/wrist) will make a start during next week's three-game series in Detroit that begins Tuesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jackson Chourio
(CF) 10-day IL — Chourio (hand) took some swings Friday for the first time since left hamate bone surgery, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
10-Day-IL
Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 15-day IL — Priester (wrist) is tracking toward beginning a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville next week, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Christian Yelich
(LF) 10-day IL — Yelich (groin) is expected to be sidelined until mid- to late-May, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 60-day IL — Zastryzny (shoulder) was diagnosed with an intercostal strain and will be sidelined until at least late April, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Vaughn
(1B) 10-day IL — Vaughn will have a follow-up appointment with his hand surgeon Thursday and hopes to be cleared at that time to progress to the next step of his rehab, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jared Koenig
(RP) 15-day IL — Koenig allowed a hit and struck out one over a scoreless inning to earn the save in Thursday's 5-2 win over the Angels.
15-Day-IL
C
Craig Yoho
(RP) 15-day IL — The Brewers placed Yoho (calf) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
A
Akil Baddoo
(LF) 60-day IL — The Brewers placed Baddoo (quadriceps) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Thomas Pannone
(RP) day-to-day — Pannone was diagnosed with a torn flexor tendon in his left forearm Saturday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
J.B. Bukauskas
(RP) day-to-day — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
G
Gerson Garabito
(RP) out — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Out

Miami Marlins

G
Graham Pauley
(3B) day-to-day — Pauley was removed from Friday's game against the Brewers with an apparent injury, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kyle Stowers
(LF) 10-day IL — Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said that Stowers (hamstring) will play another rehab game with Triple-A Jacksonville on Friday before being evaluated for a potential return, Craig Mish of FanDuel Sports Network Florida reports.
10-Day-IL
E
Esteury Ruiz
(LF) 10-day IL — Ruiz will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Jacksonville on Wednesday, Kevin Barral of FishonFirst.com reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Maximo Acosta
(SS) 10-day IL — Acosta (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Jacksonville on Wednesday, Kevin Barral of FishonFirst.com reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Griffin Conine
(LF) 10-day IL — Conine will undergo a left hamstring tendon excision next week, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Christopher Morel
(LF) 10-day IL — Morel was scratched from the lineup for Friday's game against the Rockies due to a left oblique strain, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Adam Mazur
(SP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronny Henriquez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jesus Tinoco
(RP) out — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.
Out
Game Preview
Milwaukee Brewers @ Miami Marlins
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (400)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Kyle Harrison Day-To-Day
Jackson Chourio 10-Day-IL
Graham Pauley Day-To-Day
Kyle Stowers 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Milwaukee Brewers @ Miami Marlins

+2.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Miami Marlins 60% Lean Calibrated
"Marlins ML (56% our prob vs 52% model) backed by +2.8% injury edge + $746k extreme whales"
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +6.0%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: ML Brewers +115 / Marlins -135 | Run Line Brewers +1.5 -160 / Marlins -1.5 +135 | Total 8.5 O/U -110
Movement N/A
Marginal +EV on Marlins ML at model -135 after whale/injury boosts
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=552 — DDN 51.8% overall (N=552); lean spreads/ML profitable, totals/player props losing
FULL ANALYSIS
Slight Marlins edge to 56% win prob from Bayesian 52% baseline +2.8% net injury advantage (Brewers -9.7% vs -6.9%) and extreme $746k whale volume on home. Alcantara's 2.67 ERA vs Patrick's 0.95 projects 8.2 runs under 8.5 line. Run line value on Brewers +1.5 as 56% home win implies sub-50% -1.5 cover.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme institutional whale volume $746k (14 profitable wallets, 65% conviction) on Marlins
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Miami Marlins None
+2.8 EV 60% 0.5u
SPREAD Milwaukee Brewers 1.5
+1.9 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL under 8.5
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
Miami Marlins -135
  • Our 56% win prob exceeds 52% model-implied + net injury edge +2.8% home
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Milwaukee Brewers 1.5
  • 52-56% home win prob implies only 46% Marlins -1.5 cover rate vs 42.6% breakeven at +135
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 8.5
  • Alcantara 2.67 ERA + Patrick 0.95 ERA project 8.2 combined runs
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Marlins +1.5 EV +6.5 on injury edge + extreme $743K whales vs Brewers' -9.7% hit
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