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MLB
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +51.5% EV
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians -1.5
"CLE RL -1.5: Omega pick'em + sharp 18.5% away edge +51.5% EV vs market juice, +5.1 EV"
EV / $100
+5.1
Win Prob
57%
Edge
+7.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Guardians None
58%
TOTAL over 8.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.5% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$37506 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 16 trades Kalshi: 1 trades Largest: $5314
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +118.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
28.6%
ML
249 / -249

Player Props Engine

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Cleveland Guardians

St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -105 / -115 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 100 / -110 -
Value Line - 100 / -122 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-440) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-170) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (101)
De-Vigged Fair Value -161 / 161 105 / -105 O/U 108 / -108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians

G
Gabriel Arias
(SS) 10-day IL — no
10-Day-IL
H
Hunter Gaddis
(RP) 15-day IL — Gaddis (forearm) recently returned from his rehab assignment at Triple-A Columbus and joined the Guardians for their road trip in Atlanta, signaling that he could soon be activated from the 15-day injured list, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walters
(RP) 15-day IL — Walters (lat) was charged with two runs on one hit and one walk over an inning of work in his first rehab appearance with Triple-A Columbus on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
G
George Valera
(RF) 10-day IL — Valera (calf) is building up to physically handle playing multiple days per week, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) out — Hernandez is making progress but is still in the midst of a rehab program after suffering fractures to his left arm and right leg during a Jan. 11 car accident in Venezuela, SI.com reports.
Out

St. Louis Cardinals

M
Matt Pushard
(RP) 15-day IL — Pushard (knee) tossed a 20-pitch bullpen session at full intensity Sunday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Masyn Winn
(SS) day-to-day — Winn (shin) is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Red Sox and won't be available off the bench, David Solomon of the Associated Press reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Packy Naughton
(RP) day-to-day — Imaging revealed damage to the UCL in Naughton's left elbow Saturday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
Day-To-Day
H
Hunter Dobbins
(SP) 15-day IL — Dobbins (knee) will begin a rehab assignment Tuesday at Triple-A Memphis, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said Monday that Nootbaar (heels) will be evaluated this week for potential placement on the 60-day injured list, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Cleveland Guardians @ St. Louis Cardinals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-440)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Gabriel Arias 10-Day-IL
Hunter Gaddis 15-Day-IL
Matt Pushard 15-Day-IL
Masyn Winn Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cleveland Guardians @ St. Louis Cardinals

+5.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Guardians 62% Lean
"CLE RL -1.5: Omega pick'em + sharp 18.5% away edge +51.5% EV vs market juice, +5.1 EV"
57% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 57%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +7.0%
Line Movement
Current CLE RL -1.5 -118 / STL +1.5 even / Total 8.0
Movement No significant movement
+3.2 EV on CLE ML at -118; breakeven 54.1% but need 59%+ per rules → marginal, prefer spread
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=423 — MLB 219-204 (51.8%) N=423; reduce higher tiers per overconfidence
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian edge -7.5% on home prob (43% posterior vs 50.5% market) + sharp 18.5% spread away divergence = CLE RL value despite omega pick'em. MC even at 47.6% away win but +EV 51.5% away spread; whales home contradict (-2pts). Totals model 24 vs 8 but historical 48.7% WR + losing tier = pass.
SHARP MONEY
18.5% sharp edge on spread away + 0.6% ML away; strong divergence signal despite no RLM
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cleveland Guardians -1.5
+5.1 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Guardians None
+3.2 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+1.8 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Cleveland Guardians -118
  • Bayesian fusion 57% away vs market 54.1% implied; model consensus 31.4% home regression risk
SPREAD PICK
● 62%
Cleveland Guardians -1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market -1.5 implies +1.5pt value on CLE cover; sharp 18.5% edge away + +51.5% EV on away spread
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 8.0
  • Omega total 24.0 + MC projected 24.9 vs market 8.0; decomposed ratings 203.0
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Cards ML +220: 45% model win prob vs 31% omega implied (+44 EV) + strong whales home
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