MLS
FC Cincinnati
Cincinnati
Charlotte FC
FC
Whale Activity Detected
$426818 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home
Polymarket: 138 trades
Kalshi: 232 trades
Largest: $20000
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +4.0
Win Prob
39.6%
ML
152 / -152
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAFC Cincinnati
Charlotte FC
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
-3.3
Moneyline
CHA 162
/
FC -162
Win Probability
38%
-
62%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
FC Cincinnati @ Charlotte FC
+-5.4 EV
per $100 wagered
FC Cincinnati
56%
Lean
"Over 3.5 +13.7pp edge (Omega 7.5 total vs mkt 3.5), MC 6.8 proj despite whale home ML steam"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
56%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+6.0%
Line Movement
Current
Charlotte FC -0.5 (+105) / FC Cincinnati +0.5 (-145) | O/U 3.5 | ML Charlotte FC +110 / FC Cincinnati -200
Movement
No significant movement detected
Away ML shows model edge +3.6pp but -200 juice creates negative EV; total over has strongest +EV at +21.6 per $100
FULL ANALYSIS
Models crush market total at 3.5 with Omega 7.5, Dixon-Coles 12.8 lambda, MC 6.8 proj (over 63.7% posterior). Away ML/spread edge +3.6pp from bayesian fusion/MC 56% cover but -200/-145 juice kills EV vs 66% breakeven. Extreme whales home ($411k) contradict but total over ignores ML bias in low line.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume ($411k, 16 profitable wallets, 58% on home) contradicts models but demands respect as institutional signal
MONEYLINE PICK
○
56%
FC Cincinnati -200
- Posterior away win 56% (MC 41.3% win +15% draw) vs market 52.4% no-vig
SPREAD PICK
○
56%
FC Cincinnati 0.5
- Omega spread at 0.0 vs market -0.5 home (0.5pt edge) + MC away +0.5 cover 56.1%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
59%
OVER 3.5
- Posterior over 3.5 at 63.7% (+13.7pp edge) with Omega total 7.5 vs market 3.5 (4pt edge), MC proj 6.8 total
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Over 3.5 +13.7pp edge (Omega 7.5 total vs mkt 3.5), MC 6.8 proj despite whale home ML steam
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