Genoa @ Lecce

Serie A

Genoa

2 - 1

Final

Lecce

Full Game Analysis

Serie A

Ω DDN SI PICK

56% Lean

MONEYLINE

Genoa None

"Kalshi 70.5% away vs Lecce shaded -185 — take Genoa -0.5 at +130, model shows +8.5 EV"

EV / $100

-5.4

Win Prob

39%

Edge

-1.8%

SPREAD Genoa -0.5

60%

TOTAL under 2.5

55%

Full DDN SI Breakdown

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Genoa

Lecce

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Box Score

FINAL

Genoa

Lecce

Genoa None

56% conf

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Genoa (+145) WIN · Recorded 2026-10-31T01:09:52.806212 UTC

None — Genoa +145 implied 40.8% vs model 39.0%, inside the vig;Kalshi's 70.5% away lean is the only supporting signal but not enough at this price.

Spread: Genoa -0.5 (+130) WIN · Recorded 2026-10-31T01:09:52.841720 UTC

Genoa -0.5 at +130 implies 43.5%, but Kalshi's 70.5% away lean plus retail shading Lecce (-185 on +0.5) makes the away-side win an outright edge — contrarian confluence worth roughly 6-7pp.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-31T01:09:52.909759 UTC

Model projection only: team leader with 3 goals in 8 matches (~0.38/game) vs a half-line, but no roster validation or market line available — confidence capped at 60 per unvalidated roster rule

DDN SI ANALYSIS

+-5.4 EV

per $100 wagered

Genoa 56% Lean

Strong Edge we bet this

"Kalshi 70.5% away vs Lecce shaded -185 — take Genoa -0.5 at +130, model shows +8.5 EV"

EV Breakdown

Model Prob 39%

Book Implied 41%

Edge -1.8%

Line Movement

Current Spread 0.5 (Lecce +0.5 -185 / Genoa -0.5 +130), Total 2.5 (Over +133 / Under -138), ML Lecce +210 / Genoa +145

Movement No significant line movement detected (line velocity flat)

Genoa ML market price (+145) implies 40.8%; our model lands 39.0% — the 1.8pp gap is inside the vig, so no ML edge. The only positive-EV construction is Genoa -0.5 on the spread at +130 (implied 43.5% vs model ~50%).

FULL ANALYSIS

Books shade Lecce hard at +0.5 -185, but Kalshi prices the home win at just 29.5% — a 2.8pp gap to the retail ML. Genoa's been the more functional side (3-1-5 away vs Lecce's 3-0-6 home) and Messias/Østigard anchor a competent away unit. Feed is 38% quality with poisson/elo failed, so we keep it at Lean-tier 1u on Genoa -0.5 +130 and pass the ML and Total.

SHARP MONEY

Kalshi prices Lecce at just 29.5% home while DraftKings shades Lecce -185 on the +0.5 spread — prediction market diverges toward the away side. Retail is shaded to the home dog, which is a mild contrarian signal for Genoa. No Pinnacle/whale data to confirm.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE

MONEYLINE Genoa None

-5.4 EV 56%

SPREAD Genoa -0.5

+8.5 EV 60% 1u

TOTAL under 2.5

-2.3 EV 55%

MONEYLINE PICK

○ 56%

Genoa 145

None — Genoa +145 implied 40.8% vs model 39.0%, inside the vig;Kalshi's 70.5% away lean is the only supporting signal but not enough at this price

SPREAD PICK

○ 60%

Genoa -0.5

Genoa -0.5 at +130 implies 43.5%, but Kalshi's 70.5% away lean plus retail shading Lecce (-185 on +0.5) makes the away-side win an outright edge — contrarian confluence worth roughly 6-7pp

TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)

○ 55%

UNDER 2.5

None defensible — Under 2.5 at -138 implies 58%, and historical Serie A totals are our weakest market (48.7% all-time; sub-55 is losing)
Low-scoring matchup with Genoa 3-1-5 away and Lecce 3-0-6 home supports mild Under, but no pace/weather data

About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary

Genoa -0.5 at +125 (+8.1 EV/$100) gets the same 60.5% lean the -135 ML charges you for — draw risk is the only real threat.

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