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MLB
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Royals
Kansas City Royals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +51.4% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals -2.2
"Royals -2.2 spread +49.4% EV from 14.5% sharp edge vs Pinnacle fair value, whales Tigers but sharp wins"
EV / $100
+4.9
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+8.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers None
58%
TOTAL under 8.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$282746 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 205 trades Kalshi: 26 trades Largest: $17949

Player Props Engine

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Detroit Tigers

Kansas City Royals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -145 / 122 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -141 / 128 -
Value Line - -148 / 118 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (290) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (147) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value 158 / -158 -135 / 135 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 15-day IL — Verlander (hip) will throw a live batting practice session Saturday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
W
Will Vest
(RP) 15-day IL — Vest (forearm) received a cortisone injection Friday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Troy Watson
(SP) day-to-day — Watson is scheduled to begin a throwing program Monday as he works his way back from arthroscopic right elbow surgery, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Casey Mize
(SP) 15-day IL — The Tigers placed Mize on the 15-day injured list Wednesday due to a right adductor strain.
15-Day-IL
B
Beau Brieske
(RP) 60-day IL — Brieske (adductor) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Lakeland on Tuesday, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Connor Seabold
(RP) 15-day IL — Detroit moved Seabold to the 15-day IL on Sunday due to left ankle inflammation, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Sweeney (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tarik Skubal
(SP) 15-day IL — Skubal could return in as little as 4-to-6 weeks following surgery Wednesday to remove a loose body from his left elbow, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL
T
Troy Melton
(RP) 60-day IL — Melton (elbow) yielded two runs (one earned) on two hits and no walks while striking out two batters over 1.2 innings in his rehab start Sunday with Single-A Lakeland.
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
F
Framber Valdez
(SP) Suspension — Valdez's six-game suspension was reduced to five games Wednesday, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
suspension
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Horn (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
D
Dugan Darnell
(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Javier Baez
(SS) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed Baez on the 10-day injured list Wednesday with a right ankle sprain.
10-Day-IL

Kansas City Royals

C
Cole Ragans
(SP) 15-day IL — The Royals placed Ragans on the 15-day injured list Friday, retroactive to May 7, due to a left elbow impingement.
15-Day-IL
A
Anthony Simonelli
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Javier Vaz
(2B) day-to-day — Vaz (fingers) has produced a .238/.304/.262 slash line with zero home runs and three stolen bases in 10 games since being activated from Double-A Northwest Arkansas' 7-day injured list April 22.
Day-To-Day
T
Tyson Guerrero
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Jonathan India
(2B) 10-day IL — The Royals announced Tuesday that India underwent season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left shoulder.
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Estevez
(RP) 15-day IL — Estevez (foot) was diagnosed with a right rotator cuff strain Thursday, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bailey Falter
(RP) 15-day IL — Falter (elbow) allowed no hits or walks with two strikeouts across 1.1 scoreless innings with Triple-A Omaha on Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
J
James McArthur
(RP) 60-day IL — The Royals transferred McArthur (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
A
Alec Marsh
(SP) 60-day IL — The Royals placed Marsh (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (290)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Justin Verlander 15-Day-IL
Will Vest 15-Day-IL
Cole Ragans 15-Day-IL
Anthony Simonelli Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals

+4.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Kansas City Royals 60% Lean
"Royals -2.2 spread +49.4% EV from 14.5% sharp edge vs Pinnacle fair value, whales Tigers but sharp wins"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.5%
Line Movement
Current Royals -2.2 / Tigers +2.2 | Royals -141 / Tigers +123 | O/U 8.5
Movement No significant movement detected
FULL ANALYSIS
Royals ML market-implied 58.5% matches posterior but -141 juiced beyond breakeven; sharp 14.5% spread edge home with +49% EV vs Pinnacle fair (38.8% cover). Extreme $152k whales 88% Tigers counters but default sharp Pinnacle. Low ERAs (Skubal 2.70, Wacha 3.05) favor under 8.5 amid equal injuries.
SHARP MONEY
Strong 14.5% sharp edge on Royals spread home; ML weak away signal
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Kansas City Royals -2.2
+4.9 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers None
-7.5 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL under 8.5
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Detroit Tigers 123
  • Extreme whale volume $152k (88% confidence) on Tigers despite market
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Kansas City Royals -2.2
  • Strong sharp divergence 14.5% on Royals spread +49.4% EV vs Pinnacle fair value (38.8% home cover)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 8.5
  • Pitcher leaders Wacha 3.05 ERA, Skubal 2.70 ERA suggest low scoring
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Royals -2.2 spread +49.4% EV from 14.5% sharp edge vs Pinnacle fair value, whales Tigers but sharp wins
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