Home › Serie A › Torino @ Frosinone
Serie A
Torino
Torino
Torino
0 - 2
Final
Frosinone
Frosinone
Frosinone
Full Game Analysis
Serie A
Ω DDN SI PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
MONEYLINE
Torino Torino None
"Torino +210 with Kalshi at 53.5% vs retail's 32.3% implied — a 21pp pricing gap, but thin data keeps it a 0.5u lean (EV +65.9/100)"
EV / $100
+50.0
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.7%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD Torino 0.5
59%
TOTAL over 3.5
55%
Full DDN SI Breakdown

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Torino

Frosinone

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Box Score
FINAL
Torino
Torino
0
-
Frosinone
Frosinone
2
Torino None
55% conf
L

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Torino (+210) LOSS · Recorded 2026-10-30T14:39:04.666231 UTC

Prediction market prices Torino at 53.5% while retail offers +210 (32.3% implied) — a 21pp pricing gap on a 4-1-4 road side with Raimondo (8 goals in 9)

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-30T14:39:04.945052 UTC

Model projection (no book line): Adams has 4 goals in 7 matches (0.57/match) for Torino per supplied leaders; 0.5 line set at projection, no market comparison available.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Torino @ Frosinone

+50.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Torino 55% Lean
"Torino +210 with Kalshi at 53.5% vs retail's 32.3% implied — a 21pp pricing gap, but thin data keeps it a 0.5u lean (EV +65.9/100)"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 49%
Edge +4.7%
Line Movement
Current ML: Frosinone 105 / Torino 210, Spread: Frosinone -0.5 (+100/-135), Total: 3.5
Movement No significant line movement detected
Kalshi's 53.5% on Torino vs +210 retail pricing yields +65.9 per $100 baseline; this hinges entirely on prediction-market data with zero sharp-book confirmation, so treat as thin-sample value, not verified edge
FULL ANALYSIS
The one real signal in this data-poor slate is Kalshi pricing Torino at 53.5% while retail hangs +210 — a 21pp gap on a 4-1-4 road side led by Raimondo's 8 goals in 9. With zero Poisson/ELO output, no sharp-book split, and SERIEA only a CANDIDATE-tier cell, everything here is capped at LEAN money. Torino ML +210 for 0.5u is the only durable value; the under-2pp edges on spread and total are minimum-stake leans at best.
SHARP MONEY
Kalshi 53.5% away vs retail shading to home is a modest contrarian signal, but no Pinnacle/retail divergence data exists to confirm it — low conviction
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Torino None
+50.0 EV 55% 0.5u
SPREAD Torino 0.5
+2.7 EV 59% 0.5u
TOTAL over 3.5
+3.7 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Torino 210
  • Prediction market prices Torino at 53.5% while retail offers +210 (32.3% implied) — a 21pp pricing gap on a 4-1-4 road side with Raimondo (8 goals in 9)
SPREAD PICK
○ 59%
Torino 0.5
  • Torino +0.5 at -135 pays if Torino avoids loss (dark-market 53.5%+) while Serie A spread is 7-4 recently despite miscalibration flags
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 3.5
  • Torino's league-high scorer (8 in 9 for their leader Raimondo per supplied leaders) and Frosinone's 5-2-2 home form point to a 3+ goal environment; under is -113 juice indicating books lean over anyway
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Torino 195 carries only +2.2 EV with zero model edge and 29% data quality — this game is a pass, not a play.
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