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MLB
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 0.0
"STL +135 ML +5.2 EV (omega 58% vs market 42% breakeven); model total 24.0 crushes 7.5 line"
EV / $100
+3.1
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+8.1%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals None
66%
TOTAL over 7.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +163.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.5
Win Prob
35.8%
ML
179 / -179

Player Props Engine

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St. Louis Cardinals

Detroit Tigers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -157 / 141 ↑ -
Market Consensus -1.5 (140) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-102)
Fair Value PIN DE-VIG 147 / -147 -147 / 147 O/U 105 / -105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals

M
Masyn Winn
(SS) day-to-day — Winn (undisclosed) will start at shortstop and bat leadoff in Friday's game versus the Tigers.
Day-To-Day
M
Matt Pushard
(RP) 15-day IL — Pushard (knee) will be shut down for 4-to-5 days before resuming a throwing program, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hunter Dobbins
(SP) 15-day IL — Dobbins (knee) will begin a rehab assignment Tuesday at Triple-A Memphis, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said Monday that Nootbaar (heels) will be evaluated this week for potential placement on the 60-day injured list, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day

Detroit Tigers

S
Scott Effross
(RP) day-to-day — Effross (oblique) will throw a bullpen session Friday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tyler Owens
(SP) day-to-day — Owens (hip) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Lakeland on Saturday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Troy Watson
(SP) day-to-day — Watson is scheduled to begin a throwing program Monday as he works his way back from arthroscopic right elbow surgery, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed Sweeney (shoulder) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 15-day IL — The Tigers placed Horn (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
S
Sawyer Gipson-Long
(RP) 15-day IL — The Tigers placed Gipson-Long (oblique) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
B
Beau Brieske
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Brieske (groin) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Jobe (elbow) is scheduled to play catch out to 120 feet three times this week, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Troy Melton
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers announced Friday that Melton (elbow) has started his throwing program, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Dugan Darnell
(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Josue Briceno
(C) out — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Out
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday following a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
St. Louis Cardinals @ Detroit Tigers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (140)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Masyn Winn Day-To-Day
Matt Pushard 15-Day-IL
Scott Effross Day-To-Day
Tyler Owens Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis Cardinals @ Detroit Tigers

+3.1 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Louis Cardinals 64% Sharp Lean
"STL +135 ML +5.2 EV (omega 58% vs market 42% breakeven); model total 24.0 crushes 7.5 line"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.1%
Line Movement
Current DET -163 / STL +135 (Total 7.5)
Movement No movement data
STL ML +135 offers +5.2 EV vs market; omega_model sees 58% STL win prob vs 42% implied (breakeven 42.6%)
Model: 52.8% win rate | n=218 — MLB N=218 solid; DDN 9-6 vs STL boosts Cardinals ML
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson dead-even at 12-12 but market -163 DET implies 62% win prob vs our 58% STL—+5.2 EV on Cardinals ML after yesterday's loss. Total 7.5 vs model 24.0 screams over but tier data shows totals bleeding red ink. Skubal (0.69 ERA) dominates but Liberatore undervalued at 1.64 ERA.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD St. Louis Cardinals 0.0
+3.1 EV 64% 0.5u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals None
+5.2 EV 66% 1u
TOTAL over 7.5
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
Detroit Tigers -135
  • Tarik Skubal's elite 0.69 ERA vs McGreevy's unproven 0.00 (small sample) gives Tigers 58% win prob
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Detroit Tigers -1.5
  • Skubal's 0.69 ERA leads model to project Tigers 4.2-3.3 win, covering -1.5 in 54% sims
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 62%
UNDER 7.5
  • Skubal dominance projects 7.5 total; model totals losing across tiers, but ace starter supports under
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Skubal 0.69 ERA dominates Cardinals (+2.1 EV Tigers ML, projects 4.2-3.3 final)
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