Home › MLS › Orlando City SC @ CF Montréal
MLS
Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC
SC
CF Montréal
Montréal
CF Montréal
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
50% Lean
50% Lean
SPREAD
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 0.5
"Orlando ML +240 (50.4% model vs 29% implied, +71 EV) + Over 3.5 (63.7% posterior, omega 7.5 total)"
EV / $100
-7.6
Win Prob
50%
Edge
+0.4%
MONEYLINE Orlando City SC None
55%
TOTAL over 3.5
59%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$125334 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (92% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 71 trades Largest: $20235
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +4.0
Win Prob
41.8%
ML
139 / -139

Player Props Engine

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Orlando City SC

CF Montréal

ELO Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
-0.3
Moneyline
CF 104 / ORL -104
Win Probability
49% - 51%

ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

Game Preview
Orlando City SC @ CF Montréal
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Orlando City SC @ CF Montréal

+-7.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Orlando City SC 50% Lean
"Orlando ML +240 (50.4% model vs 29% implied, +71 EV) + Over 3.5 (63.7% posterior, omega 7.5 total)"
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +0.4%
Line Movement
Current MTL -0.5 (-115)/Orlando +0.5 (-120), Total 3.5, ML MTL -110/Orlando +240
Movement No significant line movement detected
Massive value on Orlando ML +240 (50.4% posterior vs 29.4% implied breakeven)
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion shows Orlando ML edge +2.8pp to 50.4% win prob vs market's 29% implied at +240, confirmed by extreme $122k whale volume (92% conviction). Total market whiffed hard at 3.5 vs omega/MC/Dixon-Coles projecting 6.5-7.6 goals (over posterior 63.7%). Spread EV negative both sides on vigged probs near 50%, pass. Cool 45F no major under bias given model outputs.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume $122k from 14 profitable wallets at 92% confidence on Orlando
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Orlando City SC 0.5
-7.6 EV 50%
MONEYLINE Orlando City SC None
+71.4 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 3.5
+21.6 EV 59% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Orlando City SC 240
  • Away ML posterior 50.4% vs 29.4% implied breakeven (+21pp edge), extreme whales confirm
SPREAD PICK
○ 50%
Orlando City SC 0.5
  • Omega even spread 0.0 vs market MTL -0.5, MC away cover 40.5% at 0 but +0.5 boosts to ~50%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 59%
OVER 3.5
  • Over 3.5 posterior 63.7% vs 50% market (+13.7pp), omega total 7.5/MC 6.5/Dixon-Coles 6.4 each
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Orlando ML +240 (50.4% model vs 29% implied, +71 EV) + Over 3.5 (63.7% posterior, omega 7.5 total)
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