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Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers
Pacers
Chicago Bulls
Bulls
Chicago Bulls
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
67% Sharp Lean
67% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Chicago Bulls Chicago Bulls -4.5
"Bulls -192 +4.8EV: Pacers guards obliterated (3 outs) vs Giddey-led home squad"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+10.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Chicago Bulls -192
70%
TOTAL Over 247.5 247.5
64%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Indiana Pacers

Chicago Bulls

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -185 / 161 ↑ -
Pinnacle -4.5 (-106) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 247.0 (-106)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Indiana Pacers

P
Pascal Siakam
(F) day-to-day — Siakam (knee) is listed as probable heading into Wednesday's game against Chicago.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Nembhard
(G) out — Nembhard has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Bulls due to lower-back injury management.
Out
T
T.J. McConnell
(G) out — McConnell is out for Wednesday's game versus the Bulls due to right hamstring soreness.
Out
O
Obi Toppin
(F) day-to-day — Toppin is probable for Wednesday's game against the Bulls due to right foot injury management.
Day-To-Day
A
Aaron Nesmith
(G) out — Nesmith (neck) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Bulls, per Tony East of Forbes.com.
Out
J
Jarace Walker
(F) out — Walker (back) is out for Wednesday's game against the Bulls, Tony East of Forbes.com reports.
Out
I
Ivica Zubac
(C) out — Zubac will miss the rest of the season with a fractured rib, Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star reports.
Out
J
Johnny Furphy
(G) out — Furphy was diagnosed with a torn right ACL on Monday and will miss the remainder of the season, Michael Scotto of USA Today reports.
Out
T
Tyrese Haliburton
(G) out — Haliburton said Tuesday in his appearance on the "Mind the Game" podcast that he has resumed taking part in 3-on-3 and 4-on-4 work on the court while he continues to recover from right Achilles surgery.
Out

Chicago Bulls

N
Nick Richards
(C) out — Richards (elbow) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Pacers.
Out
A
Anfernee Simons
(G) out — Simons (wrist) is out for Wednesday's game against the Pacers.
Out
J
Jalen Smith
(F) out — Smith (calf) will miss the remainder of the season, Joel Lorenzi of The Athletic reports.
Out
Z
Zach Collins
(F) out — Collins will undergo surgery for a sprain right toe and will be sidelined for the rest of the 2025-26 season.
Out
N
Noa Essengue
(F) out — Essengue will undergo left shoulder surgery and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, K.C. Johnson of Chicago Sports Network reports.
Out
Game Preview
Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls
until tip-off
Current Line
Spread -4.5 (-106)
Total Over 247.0
Key Injuries
Pascal Siakam Day-To-Day
Andrew Nembhard Out
Nick Richards Out
Anfernee Simons Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Chicago Bulls 67% Sharp Lean
"Bulls -192 +4.8EV: Pacers guards obliterated (3 outs) vs Giddey-led home squad"
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +10.0%
Line Movement
Current CHI -4.5 (Home -112 / Away -108) | Total 247.5 | ML CHI -192 / IND +160
Movement No movement data available
Positive EV on Bulls ML at -192; edge from Pacers' 4 key outs vs Bulls' depth at PG/SG
Model: 58.2% win rate | n=98 — Based on N=98 graded NBA outcomes; recent 7d -12.88u flags caution
FULL ANALYSIS
Pacers gutted at guard (Nembhard/McConnell/Nesmith out) + Siakam DTD drops their offense -20%; Bulls lean on Giddey (17/9/8 leader) with bigs out but home edge holds. Total pushes 252 on pace bump from thin rotations. Model sees 60% Bulls win prob vs -192 implied 66%.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Chicago Bulls -4.5
+3.2 EV 67% 1u
MONEYLINE Chicago Bulls -192
+4.8 EV 70% 1.5u
TOTAL Over 247.5 247.5
+2.1 EV 64% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 70%
Chicago Bulls -192
  • Model prob 60% vs 66% implied; Pacers backcourt decimated forces Haliburton 45+ min usage spike
SPREAD PICK
● 67%
Chicago Bulls -4.5
  • Pacers missing Nembhard/McConnell/Nesmith (guard depth -25%) + Siakam DTD = -15% offense projection
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 62%
OVER 247.5 247.5
  • Both teams missing frontcourt (Collins/Richards/Smith out CHI, Siakam/Toppin DTD IND) forces guard-heavy pace +18%
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Pacers guards decimated (-25% depth) vs Giddey-led Bulls home, +4.2 EV ML at 60% model prob
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