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Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Washington Nationals
Nationals
Washington Nationals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
"Dodgers ML no value at -267 (72% proj vs 72.8% breakeven); fade Nats depleted staff with LAD -1.5 (+3.1 EV)"
EV / $100
+3.1
Win Prob
72%
Edge
+22.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Dodgers None
72%
TOTAL over 9.0
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Los Angeles Dodgers

Washington Nationals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action - 210 / -270 ↑ -
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Los Angeles Dodgers

G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Stone (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Snell
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager Dave Roberts told reporters Wednesday that Snell (shoulder) will "likely" face hitters once the Dodgers return to Los Angeles from their upcoming six-game road trip, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 60-day IL — Hernandez (elbow) took on-field batting practice at Dodger Stadium on Saturday, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tommy Edman
(2B) 10-day IL — Edman (ankle) took on-field batting practice Saturday and is progressing well, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Brock Stewart
(RP) 15-day IL — Stewart (shoulder) will begin throwing live batting practice Friday, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) threw a bullpen session to a squatting catcher March 17, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 15-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) was spotted playing catch out to about 90 feet Monday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers placed Miller (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
L
Landon Knack
(SP) 15-day IL — The Dodgers placed Knack on the 15-day injured list Monday due to an intercostal strain, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL

Washington Nationals

P
Paxton Schultz
(RP) 15-day IL — Schultz (elbow) struck out two and allowed no hits and one walk over 1.2 scoreless innings in his first rehab appearance Saturday for Triple-A Rochester.
15-Day-IL
J
Josiah Gray
(SP) 60-day IL — The Nationals optioned Gray to Triple-A Rochester on Thursday.
60-Day-IL
D
DJ Herz
(SP) 60-day IL — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trevor Williams
(SP) 60-day IL — The Nationals announced that Williams (elbow) has resumed his throwing progression and made 25 tosses from 60 feet Wednesday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joan Adon
(RP) out — no
Out
T
Tyler Stuart
(SP) out — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.
Out
J
Jarlin Susana
(RP) out — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
Out
T
Travis Sykora
(SP) out — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
Out
Game Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals
until first pitch
Current Line
Key Injuries
Gavin Stone 60-Day-IL
Jake Cousins 60-Day-IL
Paxton Schultz 15-Day-IL
Josiah Gray 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals

+3.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Los Angeles Dodgers 65% Sharp Lean
"Dodgers ML no value at -267 (72% proj vs 72.8% breakeven); fade Nats depleted staff with LAD -1.5 (+3.1 EV)"
72% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 72%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +22.0%
Line Movement
Current LAD -267 / Nationals +214, Total 9.0
Movement No movement data
No ML value at -267; breakeven 72.8% exceeds our 72% projection. Spread unavailable, total losing tier historically.
Model: 54.7% win rate | n=139 — Based on N=139 MLB outcomes; 7-4 vs Dodgers, 5-4 vs Nats
FULL ANALYSIS
Dodgers -267 too juiced despite Nats missing 5 pitchers (Adon out + 4 IL); model projects 72% win but breakeven 72.8% kills value. Spread edge on LAD -1.5 with Ohtani/Betts crushing depleted staff. Total 9 over lean on hot bats (Wiemer .588, Pages .429) but totals losing historically.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
+3.1 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Dodgers None
-4.2 EV 72%
TOTAL over 9.0
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
Los Angeles Dodgers -178
  • ELO rates Dodgers 60pts higher (1564 vs 1504) projecting 64% win prob vs model -178 implied
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Washington Nationals +0.0
  • Poisson projects perfect 12-12 expected scores for pick'em spot despite ELO spread of 2.4
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 24.0 24.0
  • Model total 24.0 but MLB totals consistently losing across tiers (36% hit rate); fade per calibration
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Dodgers ML -178 (64% model vs 64% implied, +4.2EV) on ELO edge despite pick'em Poisson in depleted pitcher matchup
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