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MLB
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
Kansas City Royals
Royals
Kansas City Royals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 1.5
"Over 10 at -110 has a 65.2% probability and +15.2pp edge, but data quality concerns drop confidence to 61."
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+3.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
55%
TOTAL over 10.0
61%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$1401546 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (73% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 421 trades Kalshi: 73 trades Largest: $88000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +12.5
Win Prob
27.2%
ML
268 / -268

Player Props Engine

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Tampa Bay Rays

Kansas City Royals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - 115 / -127 ↑ -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-135) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 10.5 (-101)
De-Vigged Fair Value -128 / 128 121 / -121 O/U 106 / -106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays

A
Austin Vernon
(RP) day-to-day — Triple-A Durham placed Vernon (elbow) on its full-season injured list Friday.
Day-To-Day
J
Jake Fraley
(RF) 10-day IL — Fraley (hernia) began a rehab assignment with the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Saturday, going 0-for-3 as the designated hitter.
10-Day-IL
L
Luis Guerrero
(RP) Developmental List — The Rays acquired Guerrero from the Red Sox on Tuesday in exchange for Tristan Gray.
developmental list
T
Tre' Morgan
(1B) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
L
Logan Davidson
(1B) day-to-day — Davidson signed a minor-league contract with Tampa Bay on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 Houston reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Steven Matz
(SP) 15-day IL — The Rays placed Matz on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a left ankle sprain.
15-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 60-day IL — Manager Kevin Cash said Friday that Uceta (shoulder) will resume his throwing program sometime around June 29, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — Manager Kevin Cash said Friday that Rodriguez (elbow) will begin throwing live batting practice June 30, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 60-day IL — Lux (shoulder) is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment June 29, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jonathan Heasley
(RP) 60-day IL — Heasley was returned to the major-league roster and placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right elbow stress reaction.
60-Day-IL
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays hope Wilson (back) will be able to start bullpen sessions June 8, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jesse Scholtens
(RP) 15-day IL — Scholtens was charged with a blown save and dropped to 5-3 on the season in Monday's 9-7 loss to the Orioles in 13 innings after yielding five runs (three earned) on four hits across 1.1 frames. He struck out one batter.
15-Day-IL
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Alfredo Zarraga
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day

Kansas City Royals

C
Connor Seabold
(RP) day-to-day — The Royals acquired Seabold from the Blue Jays on Monday in exchange for Denis Samudio and cash considerations.
Day-To-Day
S
Stephen Kolek
(SP) Bereavement — The Royals transferred Kolek (personal) from the paternity list to the family medical emergency list Tuesday.
Bereavement
C
Carlos Estevez
(RP) 60-day IL — Estevez (shoulder) didn't feel great after throwing a bullpen Saturday and will be re-evaluated in the coming days, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
N
Nick Mears
(RP) 15-day IL — Mears (shoulder) threw a bullpen Saturday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
K
Kris Bubic
(SP) 15-day IL — Bubic (elbow) allowed a hit and no walks with no strikeouts across two scoreless innings in Saturday's rehab start with Triple-A Omaha.
15-Day-IL
C
Cole Ragans
(SP) 60-day IL — Ragans will undergo surgery on his left elbow Wednesday, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Maikel Garcia
(3B) 10-day IL — The Royals placed Garcia on the 10-day injured list Tuesday due to a left hand muscle strain.
10-Day-IL
V
Vinnie Pasquantino
(1B) 10-day IL — Royals manager Matt Quatraro said that Pasquantino underwent surgery Sunday to remove a fractured hamate bone in his right hand and will face a recovery timeline of roughly 4-6 weeks, Joel Goldberg of Bally Sports Kansas City reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kyle Isbel
(CF) 10-day IL — Isbel has been diagnosed with a Grade 3 tear of a portion of his left plantar fasciitis.
10-Day-IL
J
Jonathan India
(2B) 60-day IL — no
60-Day-IL
J
James McArthur
(RP) 60-day IL — McArthur (elbow) underwent surgery Friday to help combat continued soreness and inflammation, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Javier Vaz
(2B) day-to-day — Vaz (fingers) has produced a .238/.304/.262 slash line with zero home runs and three stolen bases in 10 games since being activated from Double-A Northwest Arkansas' 7-day injured list April 22.
Day-To-Day
T
Tyson Guerrero
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
Alec Marsh
(SP) 60-day IL — The Royals placed Marsh (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-135)
Total Over 10.5
Key Injuries
Austin Vernon Day-To-Day
Jake Fraley 10-Day-IL
Connor Seabold Day-To-Day
Stephen Kolek Bereavement
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals

+2.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Kansas City Royals 55% Lean
"Over 10 at -110 has a 65.2% probability and +15.2pp edge, but data quality concerns drop confidence to 61."
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +3.9%
Line Movement
Current Spread: Home +1.5, Total: 10.0, Moneyline: Home +119 / Away -143
Movement No significant movement detected.
Positive but marginal edge on Royals +1.5.
FULL ANALYSIS
The Bayesian fusion model shows a strong edge on the over 10 total (65.2% probability, +15.2pp edge), but data quality is degraded due to missing pitcher and weather information, lowering confidence to 61. The spread on Royals +1.5 offers a marginal edge (53.9%, +3.9pp) and is a lean. Moneyline on Rays is positive EV but below the required edge floor for MLB moneylines, making it a lower-confidence lean. Caution advised due to missing data and model disagreement.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Kansas City Royals 1.5
+2.9 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
+4.7 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 10.0
+24.5 EV 61% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Tampa Bay Rays -143
  • Bayesian posterior 61.6% win probability vs market 58.8% breakeven, +2.8pp edge
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Kansas City Royals 1.5
  • Bayesian fusion posterior shows 53.9% cover probability, a +3.9pp edge over market
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 61%
OVER 10.0
  • Bayesian fusion posterior 65.2% over probability, +15.2pp edge, the strongest signal in this game
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rays slight favorites (57.5%) but edge <0.5%; insufficient data for confident pick.
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