Mixed Martial Arts
Michael Chiesa
Chiesa
Niko Price
Price
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAMichael Chiesa
Niko Price
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Michael Chiesa @ Niko Price
+5.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Michael Chiesa
68%
Strong
"Chiesa wrestling edge vs Price 62% TDD = +5.6 EV ML, projects 2.3 TDs/5.8min control"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
68%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+18.0%
Line Movement
Open
omega_model
Current
Michael Chiesa -180 / Niko Price +150
Movement
N/A (model-generated)
+5.6 EV on Chiesa ML at model -180
FULL ANALYSIS
Chiesa's grappling overwhelms Price's 62% TDD with 2.3 projected takedowns and 5.8min control; +4" reach edge adds striking safety. Price needs early KO (22% career rate) but fades Rd2+ vs wrestlers (1-5 record). Model sees 68% Chiesa win prob vs -180 fair line (+3.7% edge).
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
68%
Michael Chiesa -180
- Chiesa's wrestling edge (3.2 takedowns/15min) vs Price's 62% TDD forces control time advantage
SPREAD PICK
●
65%
Michael Chiesa -155
- Model projects Chiesa decision win (55% prob) covering -1.5 based on 68% grappling control rate
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
62%
NIKO PRICE / MICHAEL CHIESA UNDER 2.5 2.5
- Wrestling-heavy matchup projects 2.1 rounds with Chiesa grinding 12+ min control time
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Chiesa wrestling edge vs Price 62% TDD = +5.6 EV ML, projects 2.3 TDs/5.8min control
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