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MLB
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
New York Yankees New York Yankees None
EV / $100
+0.1
Win Prob
64%
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
60%
TOTAL under 7.0
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 1.3% divergence on spread with moderate signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +1
Whale Activity Detected
$177691 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (76% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 84 trades Kalshi: 128 trades Largest: $12179

Player Props Engine

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Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -164 / 138 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -157 / 142 -
Value Line - -165 / 135 -
Sharp Action Best Line -1.5 (140) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (142) ↓ - -
Value Line -1.5 (130) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 7.0 (-125)
Market Consensus - - Over 7.0 (-121)
Value Line - - Over 7.0 (-118)
De-Vigged Fair Value 153 / -153 -150 / 150 O/U -113 / 113
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays

S
Shane McClanahan
(SP) out — Manager Kevin Cash said Wednesday that McClanahan (forearm) will not be included on the Rays' ALDS roster, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
Out
G
Griffin Jax
(SP) day-to-day — Jax was removed from Saturday's start against the Phillies due to a lower-back contusion, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jacob Melton
(LF) 60-day IL — The Rays recalled Melton from Triple-A Durham and placed him on the 60-day injured list Tuesday due to a right hamstring strain.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 60-day IL — Lux (shoulder) has resumed full baseball activity, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 60-day IL — Uceta (shoulder) is playing catch from 75 feet, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
J
Jonathan Heasley
(RP) 60-day IL — Heasley was returned to the major-league roster and placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right elbow stress reaction.
60-Day-IL
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL

New York Yankees

A
Aaron Judge
(RF) 10-day IL — Judge (calf) isn't on the Yankees' roster for their American League Division Series against the Rays, Jack Curry of YES Network reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that Schmidt (biceps) will be shut down for the rest of the season, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
15-Day-IL
F
Fernando Cruz
(RP) 60-day IL — The Yankees transferred Cruz (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kervin Castro
(RP) 60-day IL — The Yankees transferred Castro (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (140)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Shane McClanahan Out
Griffin Jax Day-To-Day
Aaron Judge 10-Day-IL
Clarke Schmidt 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: New York Yankees -0.5 (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-06T02:01:37.040607 UTC

model 10K sims: home covers -0.5 at 71.7% with +2.2 margin and 5.4-3.2 score, HIGH edge confidence

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

+0.05 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Yankees 64% Sharp Lean
OMEGA model sees no actionable edge on this game. No quant edge with 63.8% posterior = market; home ML on +5.5% net injury gap, Rays +1.5 only for +0.4pp Pinnacle fair gap
64% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 64%
Book Implied 64%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Current NYY -176 / +145, Spread -1.5 (144/-150), Total 7.0
Movement No significant line movement detected
No edge: posterior equals market prior; 0.05 per $100 is vig noise, not value
FULL ANALYSIS
Fusion posterior 63.8% equals market 63.8% for zero Bayesian edge; Pinnacle fair 60.0/40.0 and Kalshi 60.5% both slightly below retail home price. Injury math nets +5.5% home with Rays -11.0% vs Yankees -5.5%, offset by moderate sharp away lean on spread. With degraded 61% data and no pitchers or MC, all three are PASS leans anchored to market.
SHARP MONEY
Pinnacle vs retail divergence favors away on ML 1.1% and spread 1.3% with moderate signal, no RLM; total leans under 0.1% weak
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
+0.1 EV 64%
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
+0.7 EV 60%
TOTAL under 7.0
-3.6 EV 58%
MONEYLINE PICK
● 64%
New York Yankees -176
  • calibrated home posterior 63.8% matches market but injury net +5.5% home with McClanahan out vs Judge absence keeps NYY side
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
  • Market Consensus fair away spread 60.4% vs retail implied 60.0% plus moderate sharp away divergence 1.3% gives Rays +1.5 marginal value
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 7.0
  • Sharp total leans under 0.1% weak with neutral cross-market total and low 7.0 number in likely playoff pitching environment
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rays ML +2.0pp Bayesian edge vs 41% market; MC 71.7% Yankees -0.5 cover with 8.6-run projection over 8.0
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