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La Liga
Levante
Levante
Levante
Real Sociedad
Sociedad
Real Sociedad
Full Game Analysis
La Liga
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Real Sociedad Real Sociedad -0.5
"Real Sociedad ML -165 (+8.2 EV): 68% model prob crushes 62% breakeven on superior record/home edge vs 6-8-15 Levante"
EV / $100
+4.1
Win Prob
68%
Edge
+18.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Real Sociedad None
68%
TOTAL under 2.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Levante

Real Sociedad

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
REA -100 / LEV -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

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Levante @ Real Sociedad
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Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Levante @ Real Sociedad

+4.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Real Sociedad 65% Sharp Lean
"Real Sociedad ML -165 (+8.2 EV): 68% model prob crushes 62% breakeven on superior record/home edge vs 6-8-15 Levante"
68% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 68%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +18.0%
Line Movement
Open No open line provided
Current RSO -0.5 (-180) / Levante +0.5 (+130); ML RSO -165 / Levante +425; Total 2.5
Movement No movement data
Home ML at -165 offers +8.2 EV vs our 68% prob (breakeven 62.3%); spread -0.5 (-180) yields +4.1 EV
FULL ANALYSIS
Real Sociedad -165 ML priced at 62% implied but model sees 68% true prob given 10-8-11 vs Levante's dismal 6-8-15 record and home edge at Reale Arena. Spread -0.5 (-180) captures same value with records gap + Oyarzabal threat vs weak Levante backline. Under 2.5 lean due to La Liga's 2.45 avg goals and both sides' mid-table scoring struggles.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Real Sociedad -0.5
+4.1 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Real Sociedad None
+8.2 EV 68% 1.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Real Sociedad -170
  • Model prob 68% exceeds -170 breakeven 62.96% by 5%; tier calibration shows ML profitable at 58.7% in 68-72 range
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Real Sociedad -0.5
  • Real Sociedad home dominance in LaLiga (1.02 HCA) + Oyarzabal's 12 goals in 26 matches vs Levante's weaker attack
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 2.5
  • LaLiga avg 2.4 goals/game + total calibration losing across tiers (36.8-41.2%) supports under bias
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Real Sociedad ML -170: 68% model prob vs 63% breakeven (+4.8 EV) on home edge + Oyarzabal 12G/26M
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