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MLB
San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
Arizona Diamondbacks
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +47.0% EV ALIGNED
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 1.5
"Over 8.5 is the play: 65.2% probability, 24.5% EV, despite sharp money leaning home."
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
47%
Edge
+4.8%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE San Francisco Giants None
55%
TOTAL over 8.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$167352 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 88 trades Kalshi: 1 trades Largest: $34680
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
36.7%
ML
172 / -172

Player Props Engine

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San Francisco Giants

Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -136 / 114 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -131 / 118 -
Value Line - -141 / 114 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (290) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (154) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-103)
De-Vigged Fair Value 165 / -165 -125 / 125 O/U 104 / -104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Francisco Giants

W
Willy Adames
(SS) day-to-day — Adames went 1-for-3 with a solo home run, a walk and an additional run scored in Thursday's 9-6 loss to the Athletics.
Day-To-Day
C
Casey Schmitt
(LF) day-to-day — Schmitt went 3-for-4 with a home run, two doubles and two RBI in Saturday's 6-3 loss to the Marlins.
Day-To-Day
D
Daniel Susac
(C) 10-day IL — The Giants placed Susac on the 10-day injured list Friday with a lower-back strain, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Keaton Winn
(RP) 15-day IL — Winn (elbow) began a throwing program Monday, Evan Webeck of the California Post reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — Foley (shoulder) struck out two over a scoreless inning in a rehab appearance with Triple-A Sacramento on Friday.
60-Day-IL
H
Harrison Bader
(CF) 10-day IL — Bader met with Dr. Robert Anderson on June 5 and received a stem-cell injection to address plantar fasciitis in his left foot, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Joel Peguero
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Peguero on the 60-day injured list Monday due to a left hamstring strain, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Butto
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants transferred Butto (arm) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

Arizona Diamondbacks

M
Michael Soroka
(SP) 15-day IL — Soroka (glute) is expected to begin throwing bullpen sessions twice weekly starting Tuesday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
James McCann
(C) 10-day IL — McCann (quadriceps) will start playing games in the Arizona Complex League next week, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ryne Nelson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks transferred Nelson (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jordan Lawlar
(LF) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Lawlar on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a right hamstring strain.
10-Day-IL
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Arizona is shutting down Puk (elbow) for another four weeks due to a capsule strain and he will also undergo another MRI in four weeks, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Juan Centeno
(C) Developmental List — The Diamondbacks re-assigned Centeno to minor-league camp Friday.
developmental list
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Manager Torey Lovullo said Wednesday that Burnes (elbow) has been shut down from throwing after suffering a teres major strain, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters Monday that Mena underwent surgery on his right shoulder and will be sidelined for the rest of the season, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Walston (elbow) paused his rehab program earlier in the season, but he was expected to start building back up around the middle of May, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
A.J. Vukovich
(CF) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
D
Derek Law
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) tossed a bullpen session Friday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (290)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Willy Adames Day-To-Day
Casey Schmitt Day-To-Day
Michael Soroka 15-Day-IL
James McCann 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks

+2.9 EV
per $100 wagered
San Francisco Giants 55% Lean
"Over 8.5 is the play: 65.2% probability, 24.5% EV, despite sharp money leaning home."
47% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 47%
Book Implied 42%
Edge +4.8%
Line Movement
Current Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, ML: -136 / +113
Movement No significant line movement detected.
Small edge on away moneyline, but below 10% threshold for confirmed profitability.
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion points to strong over edge (65.2% vs 50%) in Arizona. Despite data quality concerns, the model's total projection offers 24.5% EV. Sharp money favors the Diamondbacks on the spread, but our spread pick is Giants +1.5 with modest 2.9% EV. Moneyline edge is negligible.
SHARP MONEY
13.7% sharp edge on spread for home side, strong signal.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD San Francisco Giants 1.5
+2.9 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE San Francisco Giants None
+0.5 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+24.5 EV 65% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
San Francisco Giants 113
  • Slight edge 0.54% EV on away ML, but low confidence
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
San Francisco Giants 1.5
  • Away +1.5 covers at 53.9% vs market 49.1%, yielding 2.9% EV
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian fusion shows 65.2% over probability vs market 50%, +15.2pp edge
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Monte Carlo runs 76% Under 22.5 in a dead-even Giants-Diamondbacks game — the only real edge on a slate with no market odds, degraded data, and very low model agreement.
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