MLB
Chicago White Sox
Sox
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
Player Props Engine
Powered by xAIChicago White Sox
Cincinnati Reds
Injury Report
Chicago White Sox
Brooks Baldwin
(LF)
day-to-day — Baldwin (elbow) has yet to resume throwing, MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Mike Vasil
(RP)
out — Vasil (elbow) will undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery in the coming weeks, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
Out
Drew Thorpe
(SP)
out — Thorpe (elbow) is scheduled to throw his fifth bullpen session of the spring at some point this week, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Out
Kyle Teel
(C)
out — White Sox general manager Chris Getz said Wednesday that Teel has a right hamstring strain and could be sidelined 4-6 weeks, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Out
Prelander Berroa
(RP)
out — Berroa (elbow) has thrown off a mound three times so far as he continues his rehab from Tommy John surgery, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Out
Tim Elko
(1B)
out — Elko (knee) agreed to a minor-league contract with the White Sox on Sunday, Jack Ankony of SI.com reports.
Out
Ky Bush
(SP)
out — The White Sox placed Bush (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
Out
Mason Adams
(RP)
out — The White Sox announced that Adams underwent successful Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Out
Cincinnati Reds
Joel Alberto Valdez
(RP)
day-to-day — Reds manager Terry Francona said Thursday that Valdez will be shut down from throwing for a few weeks due to a shoulder issue, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
Day-To-Day
Caleb Ferguson
(RP)
out — The Reds signed Ferguson to a one-year contract Tuesday, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
Out
Hunter Greene
(SP)
out — Greene is scheduled to have bone chips removed from his right elbow Wednesday and is expected to be out until July, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
Out
Josh Staumont
(RP)
day-to-day — The Reds re-signed Staumont to a minor-league contract Dec. 30.
Day-To-Day
Alex Young
(RP)
out — Young revealed in a post on his personal Instagram account that he underwent season-ending surgery on his left elbow March 31.
Out
Carson Spiers
(SP)
out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Cincinnati Reds
+3.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Cincinnati Reds
66%
TOSS-UP
"Reds ML -140 model (62% prob) on Lodolo edge vs 5 Sox pitchers out, +3.8 EV"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
1%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-49.4%
Line Movement
Open
N/A - early spring training
Current
N/A - no books open
Movement
N/A
+3.8 EV on Reds ML at estimated -140 fair line
FULL ANALYSIS
Reds hold pitching edge with Lodolo's 1 ER/18K vs Sox decimated by 5 pitching injuries (Thorpe/Berroa/Bush out). McLain pacing Reds offense (6R/13RBI) while Sox lean on unproven Harris (.500 BA small sample). Model projects 62% Reds win probability at -140 fair line for +3.8 EV; under 8.5 catches injured staffs + cool March temps.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
68%
Cincinnati Reds -135 (DDN_model)
- Nick Lodolo leads with 1 ER/18K early, faces depleted White Sox staff with 4 pitchers out
SPREAD PICK
●
65%
Cincinnati Reds
- Lodolo's 18K rate projects multi-run edge over White Sox injury-riddled rotation
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
66%
UNDER 8.0 8.0
- Lodolo's 1 ER dominance + combined bullpen injuries cap scoring in March cool weather
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Lodolo 18K ace vs 4 White Sox pitchers out, Reds ML +3.8 EV at -135
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