WNBA
New York Liberty
Liberty
Portland Fire
Fire
Whale Activity Detected
$17315 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away
Polymarket: 30 trades
Largest: $1024
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
-2.5
Edge: +9.0
Total
179.0
Edge: +5.5
Win Prob
44.4%
ML
125 / -125
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGANew York Liberty
Portland Fire
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
-11.3
Moneyline
POR 508
/
NEW -508
Win Probability
16%
-
84%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
New York Liberty @ Portland Fire
+42.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Portland Fire
70%
Strong
"Portland +11.5: omega home -2.5 vs mkt +11.5 (9pt edge), net injury adv +11.2% as NY overreacts to outs"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
44%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-5.6%
Line Movement
Current
Portland Fire +11.5 (-102) / New York Liberty -11.5 (-118) | Total 173.5 | ML Portland Fire +550 / New York Liberty -800
Movement
No significant line movement detected
Net injury impact +11.2% home advantage (Portland -13.8%, NY -25%)
Huge +EV on Portland Fire ML at +550 (breakeven 15.4%, our prob 44.4%) due to 9pt spread edge and net injury advantage
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson+ELO projects Portland 90.8-88.1 (home -2.7), massive 9pt edge vs market NY -11.5 after injuries (net +11.2% home). Bayesian ML edge +12.9pp on Portland despite market 15.4% implied; MC high edge conf but VERY_LOW model agreement caps conviction. Whale $17k moderate on NY (contrarian signal), totals under edge +3.5pp but reduce for weak historical WR.
SHARP MONEY
Moderate whale volume $17,315 (4 wallets, 70% on New York Liberty), contradicts model edge
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
60%
Portland Fire 550
- Bayesian fusion +12.9pp edge on home ML (posterior 28.3% vs market 15.4%), omega win prob 44.4%
SPREAD PICK
●
70%
Portland Fire 11.5
- Omega independent line Portland -2.5 vs market +11.5 (9pt edge), expected score 90.8-88.1
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
54%
UNDER 173.5
- Under posterior 53.5% (+3.5pp edge vs market 50%), omega total 179 but MC under 52.7%
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Liberty -13.5 (+4.8 EV): ML -800 equiv to -20 spread, value at current line w/ whale confirm
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