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WNBA
Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas Aces
Aces
Dallas Wings
Wings
Dallas Wings
Full Game Analysis
WNBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Las Vegas Aces Las Vegas Aces -4.0
"Aces -4 (0.5u): Wings -20.7% injury > Aces -13.8% (net +6.9% edge), +2.4 EV despite whale steam on Dallas"
EV / $100
+2.4
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Las Vegas Aces None
56%
TOTAL under 164.5
53%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$37504 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: home Kalshi: 176 trades Largest: $2677

Player Props Engine

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Las Vegas Aces

Dallas Wings

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
0.5
Moneyline
DAL -107 / LAS 107
Win Probability
52% - 48%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Las Vegas Aces @ Dallas Wings
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Las Vegas Aces @ Dallas Wings

+2.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Las Vegas Aces 58% Lean
"Aces -4 (0.5u): Wings -20.7% injury > Aces -13.8% (net +6.9% edge), +2.4 EV despite whale steam on Dallas"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Open omega_model: Spread Las Vegas Aces -4 (-110) | Total 164.5 (-110 O/U) | ML Las Vegas Aces -115 / Dallas Wings -105
Current omega_model: Spread Las Vegas Aces -4 (-110) | Total 164.5 (-110 O/U) | ML Las Vegas Aces -115 / Dallas Wings -105
Movement No movement (model-generated lines)
Dallas Wings Arike Ogunbowale OUT (critical scorer) Net injury impact: Wings -20.7% vs Aces -13.8% (Aces +6.9% edge) Multiple DTD players both sides; poor data quality (-6pt conf reduction)
Slight +EV on Aces side at model pricing; breakeven 53.5%, our 55% exceeds by 1.5pp (poor data caps edge)
FULL ANALYSIS
Wings hammered by -20.7% injury hit (Ogunbowale OUT) vs Aces -13.8%; model projects 84-80 Aces win (-4 spread, 55% cover). $37k whales 100% Wings but 0 profitable wallets = weak signal. Totals under bias from absences, projecting 164 combined.
SHARP MONEY
Strong whale volume $37.5k (100% on Wings), volume tier STRONG but 0 profitable wallets tracked reduces reliability
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Las Vegas Aces -4.0
+2.4 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Las Vegas Aces None
+2.7 EV 56% 0.5u
TOTAL under 164.5
+1.2 EV 53% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 56%
Las Vegas Aces -115
  • Posterior anchored at 50/50 but injury edge pushes Aces win prob to 55% vs 53.5% implied
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Las Vegas Aces -4.0
  • Net injury lambda adj +6.9% to Aces efficiency (Wings -20.7% > Aces -13.8%) projects -4 spread cover at 55%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 53%
UNDER 164.5
  • Combined injuries suppress scoring (Wings -20.7%, Aces -13.8%); model totals project 82-79 (under 53%)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Aces -4 (0.5u): Wings -20.7% injury > Aces -13.8% (net +6.9% edge), +2.4 EV despite whale steam on Dallas
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