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Dallas Stars
Dallas Stars
Stars
Toronto Maple Leafs
Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK +284.4% EV
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs 1.5
"TOR +1.5 crush: 47% sharp edge + RLM + 62% pred mkt + $71k whales vs DAL -1.5 -170, Heiskanen/Hintz out, +14 EV"
EV / $100
+14.1
Win Prob
48%
Edge
-2.0%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE Toronto Maple Leafs None
62%
TOTAL under 6.5
57%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 47.1% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on spread.
Sharp: home Boost: +3
Whale Activity Detected
$71362 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (99% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 2 trades Kalshi: 1 trades Largest: $70800

Player Props Engine

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Dallas Stars

Toronto Maple Leafs

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 145 / -170 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 147 / -167 -
Value Line - 143 / -167 -
Sharp Action Best Line -2.5 (525) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-171) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 2.5 (-130)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.0 (-118)
De-Vigged Fair Value -160 / 160 158 / -158 O/U -110 / 110
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Dallas Stars

N
Nils Lundkvist
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
M
Michael Bunting
(LW) out — out
Out
M
Miro Heiskanen
(D) out — Heiskanen (lower body) has been ruled out for Dallas' final three regular-season games, Robert Tiffin of D Magazine reports Friday.
Out
R
Roope Hintz
(C) out — Hintz (lower body) is expected to miss the remainder of the regular season and is questionable for Game 1 of the postseason, Lia Assimakopoulos of The Dallas Morning News reports.
Out
N
Nathan Bastian
(RW) out — Head coach Glen Gulutzan said Monday that Bastian (hand) will be sidelined for 3-4 weeks, Lia Assimakopoulos of The Dallas Morning News reports.
Out
R
Radek Faksa
(C) Injured Reserve — Faksa (lower body) won't be an option against the Flames on Tuesday but is nearing a return to action, Brien Rea of Victory+ reports.
Injured Reserve
S
Sam Steel
(C) out — Steel's (hip) timeline for a return to the lineup has yet to be determined, but he is not expected to suit up in the short term, Owen Newkirk of DLLS Sports reports Tuesday.
Out
T
Tyler Seguin
(C) Injured Reserve — Seguin (knee) will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 campaign and the entirety of the playoffs, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports Thursday.
Injured Reserve

Toronto Maple Leafs

D
Dakota Joshua
(C) out — Joshua (upper body) will not return to the lineup for the rest of the season, according to David Alter of The Hockey News on Saturday.
Out
A
Anthony Stolarz
(G) out — Stolarz (lower body) will miss the rest of the 2025-26 regular season, David Alter of The Hockey News reports Saturday.
Out
B
Brandon Carlo
(D) out — out
Out
C
Chris Tanev
(D) Injured Reserve — Tanev underwent core muscle surgery Wednesday and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 campaign.
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Dallas Stars @ Toronto Maple Leafs
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -2.5 (525)
Total Over 2.5
Key Injuries
Nils Lundkvist Day-To-Day
Michael Bunting Out
Dakota Joshua Out
Anthony Stolarz Out
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Dallas Stars @ Toronto Maple Leafs

+14.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Toronto Maple Leafs 65% Sharp Lean
"TOR +1.5 crush: 47% sharp edge + RLM + 62% pred mkt + $71k whales vs DAL -1.5 -170, Heiskanen/Hintz out, +14 EV"
48% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 48%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -2.0%
Line Movement
Current ML: DAL -170 / TOR +142; Puck Line: DAL -1.5 -170; Total: 6.5 (-110 both sides)
Movement No significant movement detected
equal_injury_impact
TOR ML +142 offers +16.2 EV at 48% win prob (breakeven 41.3%)
Model: 49.1% win rate | n=395 — NHL ML profitable in strong tier; vs TOR 37.5% WR (N=24)
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharps show 47.1% edge on TOR +1.5 w/ RLM vs DAL -1.5 -170, Pinnacle fair 61.5% TOR cover (+284% EV). Pred mkt 62% TOR/38% DAL diverges extreme (+21.5%) from books, $71k whales 99% home (strong tier). Injuries equal -25% lambda adj neutralizes; NHL UDogs + home splits add edge. Degraded data caps conf.
SHARP MONEY
47.1% spread edge to TOR +1.5 with RLM; moderate under; overall sharp home lean (+4 conf boost)
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Toronto Maple Leafs 1.5
+14.1 EV 65% 1.0u
MONEYLINE Toronto Maple Leafs None
+16.2 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL under 6.5
+2.9 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 62%
Toronto Maple Leafs 142
  • Our 48% TOR win prob vs 39.5% devigged implied (NHL UDogs hit rate elevated)
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Toronto Maple Leafs 1.5
  • Pinnacle fair value 61.5% TOR +1.5 cover vs retail DAL -1.5 -170 (+284% EV outlier)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
UNDER 6.5
  • Sharp 2.4% under edge despite fair over 52.5%
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Toronto ML +186: MC/Bayesian 45-47% win prob vs 35% omega implied (+31.6 EV/100), whales steam home
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