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MLB
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
Braves
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
Arizona Diamondbacks
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +47.0% EV
74% High Edge
74% High Edge
SPREAD
Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 0
"ARI spread +340 at Bovada = +47% EV vs Pinnacle fair (sharp 12.2% edge on depleted matchup)"
EV / $100
+47.0
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
2.0u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
64%
TOTAL under 9.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 12.2% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +112.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
29.9%
ML
235 / -235

Player Props Engine

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Atlanta Braves

Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -111 / -109 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -105 / -103 -
Value Line - -112 / -112 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (340) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (186) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (101)
Fair Value Fair Value 199 / -199 -101 / 101 O/U 107 / -107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Atlanta Braves

A
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Smith-Shawver (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
S
Sean Murphy
(C) 10-day IL — Murphy (hip) caught three innings of a simulated game with High-A Rome on Wednesday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Chris Sale
(SP) day-to-day — Sale (illness) may not be in attendance for Monday night's contest against the Diamondbacks, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Spencer Strider
(SP) 15-day IL — Strider (oblique) will throw a bullpen session in Phoenix on Friday, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Ha-Seong Kim
(SS) 10-day IL — Atlanta placed Kim (finger) on its 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
D
Daysbel Hernandez
(RP) 15-day IL — Hernandez (shoulder) threw a live batting practice session Monday but has yet to make his Grapefruit League debut, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Danny Young
(RP) 15-day IL — Atlanta placed Young (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
H
Hurston Waldrep
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldrep will undergo surgery Monday to remove loose bodies from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joey Wentz
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Wentz on the 60-day injured list Tuesday with a right ACL tear.
60-Day-IL
J
Jurickson Profar
(LF) Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Suspension
S
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta announced that Schwellenbach underwent a procedure Wednesday to remove bone spurs from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joe Jimenez
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss acknowledged Wednesday that he's uncertain if Jimenez (knee) will be available to pitch at any point in 2026, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Arizona Diamondbacks

M
Merrill Kelly
(SP) 15-day IL — Arizona manager Torey Lovullo said Saturday that a decision whether to activate Kelly (back) when eligible will be announced Sunday, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports. The right-hander can be activated April 8.
15-Day-IL
J
Jordan Lawlar
(SS) 10-day IL — Lawlar was diagnosed with a fracture in his right wrist Friday and will be sidelined 6-to-8 weeks, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
10-Day-IL
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Puk (elbow) has thrown multiple bullpen sessions since late March, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
(LF) 10-day IL — Gurriel (knee) continues to get at-bats and lightly run out of the batter's box in simulated games at Arizona's training camp, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pavin Smith
(1B) 10-day IL — Smith is not in the lineup for Monday's contest versus the Tigers.
10-Day-IL
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Locklear
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Locklear (elbow) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) is throwing from up to 120 feet on flat ground, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Monday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Derek Law
(RP) out — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.
Out
T
Tommy Henry
(RP) out — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.
Out
Game Preview
Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (340)
Total Over 9.5
Key Injuries
AJ Smith-Shawver 60-Day-IL
Sean Murphy 10-Day-IL
Merrill Kelly 15-Day-IL
Jordan Lawlar 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks

+47.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Arizona Diamondbacks 74% High Edge
"ARI spread +340 at Bovada = +47% EV vs Pinnacle fair (sharp 12.2% edge on depleted matchup)"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current ATL -112 / ARI -108 / Total 9.5
Movement Minimal movement, near pick'em ML
No positive EV on ML at current pricing; spread home +47% EV at Bovada outlier but requires +340 odds
Model: 52.0% win rate | n=248 — MLB 52% N=248; vs ARI 12-9 good, vs ATL 7-13 poor; reduce 55-72 conf by 3pts
FULL ANALYSIS
Massive +47% EV on ARI spread +340 Bovada vs Pinnacle fair 33% (199) with 12.2% sharp divergence—exploit the outlier. ML near pick'em no edge despite weak RLM away; under 9.5 aligns Pinnacle 52% fair + H2H under hit but totals losing historically. Injuries everywhere (Strider/Sale ARI SP out) caps offense vs 0.00 ERA leaders.
SHARP MONEY
12.2% sharp edge on spread to ARI + RLM on ML away; strongest signal is spread divergence
Recommended Sizing
2.0u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Arizona Diamondbacks 0
+47.0 EV 74% 2.0u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
+1.8 EV 64% 0.5u
TOTAL under 9.5
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
Atlanta Braves -104
  • Sharp money 1.9% edge to Braves ML + recent H2H model 2-0 on Braves/over in this series
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Atlanta Braves 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market Arizona -1.5 shows 1.5pt overlay to Braves +1.5; ELO favors Braves by 5.1pts
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 9.5
  • Omega total 24.0 vs market 9.5 = massive 14.5pt overlay; Poisson projects 12-12 expected runs
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Omega 12-12 explosion vs 9.5 total (+14.5 edge) + sharp 1.9% Braves ML, both rotations obliterated by IL list
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