Home › PGA Tour › Alex Fitzpatrick @ Ben Griffin
PGA Tour
Alex Fitzpatrick
Alex Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatric
Ben Griffin
Griffin
Ben Griffin
Full Game Analysis
PGA Tour
Ω OMEGA PICK
57% Lean
57% Lean
SPREAD
Ben Griffin Ben Griffin -1.5
"Ben Griffin +2.6% prob edge (+5 EV ML -110) on experience vs Fitzpatrick in data-poor spot"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Ben Griffin None
60%
TOTAL under 285.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Alex Fitzpatrick

Ben Griffin

ELO Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
BEN -100 / ALE -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

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Alex Fitzpatrick @ Ben Griffin
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Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Alex Fitzpatrick @ Ben Griffin

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Ben Griffin 57% Lean
"Ben Griffin +2.6% prob edge (+5 EV ML -110) on experience vs Fitzpatrick in data-poor spot"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: ML Ben Griffin -110 / Alex Fitzpatrick -110 | Spread Ben Griffin -1.5 (-110) | Total 285.5 (-110)
Movement No movement (model-generated lines)
+5.0 EV on Ben Griffin side at -110 model odds
FULL ANALYSIS
No odds, injuries, or advanced stats for this 2026 matchup; model leans Ben Griffin (55% win prob) due to established PGA Tour results vs Fitzpatrick's emerging profile. Stroke diff -1.8 supports -1.5 spread cover; tournament total projects under 285.5. Poor data caps all at low-confidence LEANs.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Ben Griffin -1.5
+3.2 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Ben Griffin None
+5.0 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 285.5
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Ben Griffin -110
  • Ben Griffin 55% win prob (our model) exceeds -110 implied 52.4%; superior experience edge
SPREAD PICK
○ 57%
Ben Griffin -1.5
  • Model stroke differential projects Ben Griffin -1.8 vs -1.5 line (55% cover prob vs 52% implied)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 285.5
  • Model combined strokes 283.2 vs 285.5 total (53% under prob); unknown venue assumes neutral conditions
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Even H2H Fitzpatrick-Griffin (50/50 posterior, +2% model edge Griffin); PASS poor data (24%)
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