English Premier League
Fulham
Fulham
Arsenal
Arsenal
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAFulham
Arsenal
Betting Odds Comparison
| Source | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Consensus | - | -212 / 638 ↑ | - |
| Market Consensus | -1.0 (-122) | - | - |
| Market Consensus | - | - | Over 2.5 (-109) |
| De-Vigged Fair Value | -117 / 117 | -315 / 315 | O/U -104 / 104 |
Line Movement
Open
Current
Get Daily Picks
AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.
You're in!
Already subscribed!
Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Fulham @ Arsenal
+12.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Arsenal
60%
Lean
"Arsenal -1.5 +125 value vs 44% breakeven (ML posterior implies 50% cover), 0 EV on juiced ML"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
69%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+19.2%
Line Movement
Current
Spread: Arsenal -1.5 (+125) / Fulham +1.5 (-175); ML: Arsenal -225 / Fulham +650; Total: 2.5 (-110)
Movement
No significant movement detected
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior pegs Arsenal win at 69.2% matching -225 ML, zero edge but -1.5 spread +125 undervalues cover prob (~50% implied by ML). No injuries or situational edges; Kalshi 68.5% confirms market. Poor data caps conviction, totals weak historically.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
62%
Arsenal -225
- Bayesian posterior matches market at 69.2%, no edge after vig
SPREAD PICK
○
60%
Arsenal -1.5
- Arsenal ML posterior 69.2% implies ~50% prob cover -1.5 vs +125 breakeven 44.4%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 2.5
- Arsenal strong home defense (Saliba/Rice leaders), EPL totals historically weak for model
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Arsenal -1.5 +125 (52% model cover vs 44% implied); ML edge zero at -225
Partner Spotlight
Want to reach bettors who use data?
partnerships@degendailynews.com21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700