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New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
Seattle Mariners
Mariners
Seattle Mariners
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
62% Lean
62% Lean
MONEYLINE
New York Yankees New York Yankees
"Under 7.5 +12.2 EV (omega 24.0 total vs market 7.5); NYY ML +4.8 EV on 17% prob edge despite injuries"
EV / $100
+4.8
Win Prob
37%
Edge
-13.1%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD New York Yankees +1.5
59%
TOTAL Seattle Mariners / New York Yankees Under 7.5 7.5
72%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +118.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.5
Win Prob
36.9%
ML
171 / -171

Player Props Engine

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New York Yankees

Seattle Mariners

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada Best Line - -117 / -103 ↑ -
Pinnacle - -112 / 102 -
Kambi - -127 / 102 -
Bovada Best Line -3.0 (385) - -
Pinnacle -1.5 (188) ↓ - -
Pinnacle - - Over 7.0 (-117)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Rodon (elbow) reported tightness in his right hamstring Tuesday, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Anthony Volpe
(SS) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday on the "Talkin' Yanks" podcast by Jomboy Media that Volpe (shoulder) will take live batting practice Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters Monday that Cole (elbow) will toss a one-inning live batting practice in "a couple of days," Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor signed a minor-league contract with the Angels on Monday.
Day-To-Day
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) is tentatively slated to begin throwing bullpens before the end of March and could face hitters in April or May, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
R
Rafael Montero
(RP) day-to-day — Montero continues to have visa issues and hasn't yet arrived at Yankees camp, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day

Seattle Mariners

C
Carlos Vargas
(RP) 15-day IL — The Mariners placed Vargas on the 15-day injured list Friday, retroactive to March 24, due to a right lat strain.
15-Day-IL
M
Miles Mastrobuoni
(3B) 10-day IL — The Mariners placed Mastrobuoni (calf) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
J.P. Crawford
(SS) 10-day IL — Crawford received a cortisone injection in his injured shoulder Wednesday, and manager Dan Wilson said it's unclear if the shortstop will be ready to play in the March 26 season opener versus the Guardians, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Bryce Miller
(SP) 15-day IL — The Mariners placed Miller (oblique) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a left oblique strain.
15-Day-IL
B
Brennen Davis
(CF) day-to-day — Davis was removed from Satuday's Cactus League game against the Angels due to left hamstring tightness, Tim Booth of The Seattle Times reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Logan Evans
(SP) 60-day IL — Evans underwent UCL reconstruction surgery with an internal brace Jan. 23 on his right elbow.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (385)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Carlos Rodon 15-Day-IL
Anthony Volpe 10-Day-IL
Carlos Vargas 15-Day-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners

+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Yankees 62% Lean
"Under 7.5 +12.2 EV (omega 24.0 total vs market 7.5); NYY ML +4.8 EV on 17% prob edge despite injuries"
37% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 37%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -13.1%
Line Movement
Current SEA -118 / NYY -102 (ML), Total 7.5
Movement No movement data
NYY ML +102 offers +4.8 EV vs market vig; under 7.5 has +12.2 EV vs omega_total 24.0
Model: 53.3% win rate | n=75 — Based on N=75 graded MLB outcomes; Poisson overweighted early season
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson blasts 12-12 expected (total 24) vs market 7.5, massive under edge with both aces (Cole/Rodon/Miller) IL forcing bullpen games. Mariners -118 ML overprices home edge vs ELO/our 36.9% SEA win prob—NYY +102 has 4.8 EV. Injuries hit SEA harder (Crawford IL), model fades recent 0-5 vs NYY.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE New York Yankees
+4.8 EV 62% 0.5u
SPREAD New York Yankees +1.5
+2.1 EV 59%
TOTAL Seattle Mariners / New York Yankees Under 7.5 7.5
+12.2 EV 72% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
New York Yankees +100
  • Omega Poisson+ELO projects 36.9% NYY win prob vs market-implied 50%, creating +4.2 EV on +100
SPREAD PICK
● 63%
New York Yankees +1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market SEA -120 signals 1.2pt overlay to NYY cover
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 72%
SEATTLE MARINERS / NEW YORK YANKEES OVER 7.0 7.0
  • Omega total 24.0 vs market 7.0 (exp scores 12-12) yields +17pt edge in probable bullpen duel
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Omega 24.0 total vs market 7.0 (+17pt edge) in ace-less bullpen duel, NYY ML +4.2 EV
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