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MLB
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV ALIGNED
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
"Rays +1.5 has +2.9 EV per $100 but sharp money disagrees — only a 0.5u lean."
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+6.3%
Size
0.5u
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.9% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$3460328 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 750 trades Kalshi: 308 trades Largest: $785114
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
44.2%
ML
126 / -126

Player Props Engine

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Tampa Bay Rays

Los Angeles Dodgers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -158 / 132 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -153 / 141 -
Value Line - -182 / 145 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (270) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (133) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.0 (-118)
De-Vigged Fair Value 141 / -141 -147 / 147 O/U -111 / 111
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays

G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 60-day IL — Lux (shoulder) is scheduled to take live batting practice against teammate Craig Kimbrel (wrist) on Tuesday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jonny DeLuca
(RF) 10-day IL — DeLuca (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Durham on Friday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jonathan Heasley
(RP) 60-day IL — Heasley was returned to the major-league roster and placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right elbow stress reaction.
60-Day-IL
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — Rodriguez (elbow) has no timetable to progress to facing live hitters, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays hope Wilson (back) will be able to start bullpen sessions June 8, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 60-day IL — Manager Kevin Cash said Friday that Uceta (shoulder) suffered a setback and received a PRP injection, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Michael Grove
(RP) 60-day IL — Grove (shoulder) started a rehab assignment with the Florida Complex League Rays on Saturday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jesse Scholtens
(RP) 15-day IL — Scholtens was charged with a blown save and dropped to 5-3 on the season in Monday's 9-7 loss to the Orioles in 13 innings after yielding five runs (three earned) on four hits across 1.1 frames. He struck out one batter.
15-Day-IL
J
Jake Fraley
(RF) 10-day IL — Rays manager Kevin Cash said Monday that Fraley (hernia) will require surgery and will face a recovery timeline of 6-to-8 weeks, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Austin Vernon
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Alfredo Zarraga
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day

Los Angeles Dodgers

T
Tyler Glasnow
(SP) 60-day IL — Glasnow (back) has yet to resume throwing, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Edwin Diaz
(RP) 60-day IL — Diaz (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session this week, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Teoscar Hernandez
(LF) 10-day IL — Hernandez (hamstring) is expected to ramp up his baseball activities this week, and if all goes well, he could be sent out on a rehab assignment by the weekend, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Brock Stewart
(RP) 15-day IL — Stewart (foot) will begin a rehab assignment at Single-A Ontario on Friday.
15-Day-IL
W
Will Smith
(C) 10-day IL — The Dodgers will place Smith (neck) on the 10-day injured list Thursday, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kendall George
(CF) out — George hasn't played for Double-A Tulsa since suffering an injury to his left patellar tendon in a May 25 game versus Northwest Arkansas, Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com reports.
Out
C
Chris Campos
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
B
Blake Snell
(SP) 60-day IL — Snell (elbow) began playing catch Friday, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday, yielding one hit and one walk over two-thirds of a scoreless frame.
60-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — Miller (shoulder/back) will resume throwing off the mound this week, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts revealed Tuesday that Stone has been unable to ramp up his throwing without feeling soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 60-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 10-day IL — Hernandez is expected to be out for 6-to-8 weeks after sustaining a "significant tear" of his left oblique during Tuesday's 15-6 win over the Rockies, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Ben Casparius
(RP) 60-day IL — Casparius (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
L
Landon Knack
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Knack (chest) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Dodgers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (270)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Gavin Lux 60-Day-IL
Jonny DeLuca 10-Day-IL
Tyler Glasnow 60-Day-IL
Edwin Diaz 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Dodgers

+2.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Rays 60% Lean
"Rays +1.5 has +2.9 EV per $100 but sharp money disagrees — only a 0.5u lean."
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 48%
Edge +6.3%
Line Movement
Current Spread -1.5, Total 7.0, ML -157/+130
Movement No significant movement detected
Small positive edge of $2.90 per $100 wagered on Rays +1.5, but sharp money conflict and low model agreement reduce conviction.
FULL ANALYSIS
The Rays +1.5 offers a small quantitative edge per Bayesian fusion (53.9% cover probability vs 47.6% market implied), but sharp money is heavily on the Dodgers -1.5 (15.9% divergence). With model agreement very low, this is a low-conviction lean. The total over 7.0 shows a larger Bayesian edge but the model's absurdly high projected total (22.5) undermines credibility. Best to take a small position on the Rays spread or pass entirely.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 15.9% favoring Dodgers -1.5, with strong signal. Whales also heavily on home side ($3.46M volume). This contradicts the Bayesian model's lean toward the Rays cover.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
+2.9 EV 60% 0.5u
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior shows 53.9% cover probability vs market implied 47.6%, giving +6.3pp edge
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Sharp + retail divergence on Dodgers -2.2 spread creates +45.8% EV at Bovada — but no pitcher data caps confidence; lean over 9.5 (Bayesian 65.2%) but half-unit only due to conflicting sharp book signal.
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