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MLB
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox
Sox
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
55% Lean
55% Lean
MONEYLINE
Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles None
"Total over 9 is the strongest signal with +15.2pp Bayesian edge, but degraded data limits confidence to Lean"
EV / $100
+7.3
Win Prob
50%
Edge
-8.0%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD Baltimore Orioles -1.5
55%
TOTAL over 9.0
61%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$278424 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 141 trades Kalshi: 3 trades Largest: $12292
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
33.9%
ML
195 / -195

Player Props Engine

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Chicago White Sox

Baltimore Orioles

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -135 / 122 ↑ -
Market Consensus -1.5 (150) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value 161 / -161 -129 / 129 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Chicago White Sox

N
Noah Schultz
(SP) 15-day IL — Schultz (knee) struck out seven and allowed two earned runs on three hits and two walks across 4.2 innings Friday in a rehab start with Triple-A Charlotte.
15-Day-IL
M
Munetaka Murakami
(1B) 10-day IL — White Sox manager Will Venable said Sunday that Murakami (hamstring) is increasing the intensity of his hitting and running at about 80 percent intensity, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
E
Everson Pereira
(RF) 7-day IL — The White Sox activated Pereira (pectoral) from the 10-day injured list Thursday.
7-day il
H
Hagen Smith
(SP) day-to-day — Smith will be shut down for two weeks after being diagnosed with a left shoulder impingement, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tim Elko
(1B) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
T
Tyler Gilbert
(RP) 15-day IL — The White Sox placed Gilbert on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a left shoulder impingement.
15-Day-IL
A
Austin Hays
(LF) 60-day IL — Hays has been pulled off his rehab assignment at Triple-A Charlotte due to a recurrence of left calf soreness, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jordan Leasure
(RP) 60-day IL — Leasure (forearm) said Friday that he will be shut down from throwing for four weeks, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Ky Bush
(SP) 60-day IL — Bush (elbow) had a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and is unlikely to return until the second half of the season, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Drew Thorpe
(SP) 60-day IL — Thorpe (elbow) recently underwent an appendectomy but has resumed throwing, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Prelander Berroa
(RP) 60-day IL — Berroa is dealing with right elbow inflammation and will have his rehab stint paused, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Mike Vasil
(RP) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Vasil (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Murray
(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Murray (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
M
Mason Adams
(RP) day-to-day — The White Sox announced that Adams underwent successful Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brooks Baldwin
(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Baldwin (elbow) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL

Baltimore Orioles

C
Chris Bassitt
(SP) 15-day IL — Bassitt (back) underwent a minor procedure to have bone spurs removed from his back, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Dean Kremer
(SP) 60-day IL — Kremer (quadriceps) made his second rehab start for Triple-A Norfolk on Friday, giving up two hits and one walk in 6.2 scoreless innings. He struck out eight.
60-Day-IL
F
Felix Bautista
(RP) 60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Andy Kostka of TheBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Y
Yaramil Hiraldo
(RP) 60-day IL — Hiraldo (shoulder) will throw live batting practice Friday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Ryan Mountcastle
(1B) 60-day IL — Mountcastle (foot) did some running Saturday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jhonkensy Noel
(RF) day-to-day — Noel was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A Norfolk on Monday with left wrist inflammation, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Levi Wells
(P) day-to-day — Wells underwent successful core-muscle surgery Thursday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Colin Selby
(RP) 60-day IL — Selby was recently evaluated by Dr. Chris Looze in Baltimore due to ongoing symptoms with his injured right shoulder, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jordan Westburg
(3B) 60-day IL — Westburg (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Andrew Golden of TheBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Richard Guasch
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
Z
Zach Eflin
(SP) 60-day IL — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Will Robertson
(LF) day-to-day — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (150)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Noah Schultz 15-Day-IL
Munetaka Murakami 10-Day-IL
Chris Bassitt 15-Day-IL
Dean Kremer 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

+7.35 EV
per $100 wagered
Baltimore Orioles 55% Lean
"Total over 9 is the strongest signal with +15.2pp Bayesian edge, but degraded data limits confidence to Lean"
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 58%
Edge -8.0%
Line Movement
Current Spread: -1.5, Total: 9.0, ML: -136/+113
Movement No significant movement detected
Home moneyline is negative EV based on calibrated
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion favors total over 9 with a strong +15.2pp edge (posterior 65.2% vs market 50%), making it the most compelling play despite degraded data quality. Moneyline and spread on Orioles show marginal positive EV but edge below 4.5% floor. Whale volume extreme but split 57% away, not decisive. Proceed with caution on all bets due to missing pitcher, weather, and roster data.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Baltimore Orioles None
+7.3 EV 55% 0.5u
SPREAD Baltimore Orioles -1.5
+2.9 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.0
+24.5 EV 61% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Baltimore Orioles 113
  • Bayesian fusion shows away win probability 50.4% vs market implied 46.9%, giving +3.5pp edge
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Baltimore Orioles -1.5
  • Away cover posterior 53.9% vs market 50% implied, small +3.9pp edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 61%
OVER 9.0
  • Bayesian total over posterior 65.2% vs market 50%, strong +15.2pp edge
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
White Sox +196 ML: Bayesian fusion shows +6.6pp edge, whales dumped $239K on Chicago, and Orioles are banged up without Rutschman — +14.8% EV in a pick-em game
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