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Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns
Suns
Charlotte Hornets
Hornets
Charlotte Hornets
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Charlotte Hornets Charlotte Hornets -5.5
"CHA -5.5 (1u): Suns -15% depth from 3 injuries, model projects 6pt win despite heavy ML juice"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
62%
Edge
+12.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Phoenix Suns None
40%
TOTAL under 221.5
52%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Phoenix Suns

Charlotte Hornets

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada - -210 / 175 ↑ -
Bovada - - Over 22.5 (180)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Phoenix Suns

A
Amir Coffey
(G) out — Coffey (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Hornets.
Out
H
Haywood Highsmith
(F) out — Highsmith (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Hornets.
Out
M
Mark Williams
(C) out — Williams (foot) is listed as questionable for Thursday's game against the Hornets, Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic reports.
Out

Charlotte Hornets

P
PJ Hall
(C) out — Hall (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Suns.
Out
Game Preview
Phoenix Suns @ Charlotte Hornets
until tip-off
Current Line
Total Over 22.5
Key Injuries
Amir Coffey Out
Haywood Highsmith Out
PJ Hall Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Phoenix Suns @ Charlotte Hornets

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Charlotte Hornets 65% Sharp Lean
"CHA -5.5 (1u): Suns -15% depth from 3 injuries, model projects 6pt win despite heavy ML juice"
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +12.0%
Line Movement
Current CHA -5.5 (-108/-112) | O/U 221.5 | ML CHA -205 / PHX +170
Movement No movement data
No positive EV on Charlotte ML (-205 breakeven 67.2% > our 62%). Spread offers marginal value but model calibration flags overconfidence risk.
Model: 47.5% win rate | n=181 — Strong ML profitable at 68-72 tier (58.7%), reduce confidence accordingly
FULL ANALYSIS
Suns crippled by 3 outs (Coffey/Highsmith/Williams) drop their rotation depth 15% while Charlotte intact at home. Model projects CHA 112-106 win (spread edge from injury cascade), but -205 ML has no EV vs our 62% prob. Totals losing model-wide, fade overs at 221.5.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Charlotte Hornets -5.5
+2.1 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Phoenix Suns None
-1.8 EV 40%
TOTAL under 221.5
+0.4 EV 52% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Charlotte Hornets -125
  • 55.6% win probability vs -125 implied 55.6%, exact model price
SPREAD PICK
● 66%
Charlotte Hornets -3.0
  • Omega Poisson model projects 103-100 final score, covering -3.0 spread
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 64%
UNDER 203.0 203.0
  • Model totals exactly 203.0 from 103-100 projection, no pace bias
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Hornets -3 (103-100 model) with Suns injuries thinning depth, +1.8 EV at omega_model lines
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