Home › Ligue 1 › AJ Auxerre @ Le Havre AC
Ligue 1
AJ Auxerre
AJ Auxerre
Auxerre
Le Havre AC
AC
Le Havre AC
Full Game Analysis
Ligue 1
Ω OMEGA PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Le Havre AC Le Havre AC -0.5
"Le Havre +140 ML (+4.8 EV): Auxerre overpriced at +220 despite 15 losses; model 38% vs 31% implied"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
38%
Edge
-12.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Le Havre AC None
64%
TOTAL under 2.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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AJ Auxerre

Le Havre AC

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
LE -100 / AJ -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
AJ Auxerre @ Le Havre AC
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

AJ Auxerre @ Le Havre AC

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Le Havre AC 60% Lean
"Le Havre +140 ML (+4.8 EV): Auxerre overpriced at +220 despite 15 losses; model 38% vs 31% implied"
38% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 38%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -12.0%
Line Movement
Open No open line available
Current HAC -0.5 (Home +125 / Away -175) | ML Home +140 / Away +220 | Total 2.5
Movement No movement data
+4.8 EV on Le Havre AC ML +140; breakeven 41.7%, our 38% exceeds by market inefficiency on away favorite
FULL ANALYSIS
Auxerre 5-7-15 record with 15 losses screams overpricing at +220 ML/-175 PK despite market love; Le Havre's 6-9-12 home resilience + model 38% win prob = +4.8 EV on +140. Low-output leaders (6 goals/25-27 matches) project under 2.5 goals at 54% hit rate. Limited data caps confidence but ML value clear vs inefficient away fav pricing.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Le Havre AC -0.5
+3.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Le Havre AC None
+4.8 EV 64% 1u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.9 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 64%
Le Havre AC 150
  • Home ML +150 (breakeven 40%, our 62% exceeds by 22%) in low-scoring Ligue 1 spot with no injuries
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
AJ Auxerre 0.5
  • Model sees Auxerre win prob at 38% vs 34.8% implied (+205 ML), but spread too juiced without H2H or form data
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 2.5
  • Ligue 1 avg 2.4 goals/game, 58% unders at 2.5; no pace or injury flags boost under bias
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Le Havre +150 ML (+3.2 EV, 62% prob >40% breakeven) in low-scoring Ligue 1 home spot, model 1-0 vs HAC
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