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MLB
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
Padres
7 - 12
Final
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 1.5
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
39%
Edge
+7.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE San Diego Padres None
50%
TOTAL over 9.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.0
Win Prob
38.9%
ML
157 / -157

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

San Diego Padres

Los Angeles Dodgers

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -250 / 205 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -237 / 209 -
Value Line - -245 / 190 -
Sharp Action Best Line -2.5 (145) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (-106) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value -100 / -100 -225 / 225 O/U 101 / -101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Diego Padres

R
Randy Vasquez
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
F
Freddy Fermin
(C) day-to-day — Fermin is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Cubs.
Day-To-Day
J
Jason Adam
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Adam on the 15-day injured list Thursday, retroactive to Tuesday, with a right shoulder strain.
15-Day-IL
D
David Morgan
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres recalled Morgan from Triple-A El Paso on Friday.
15-Day-IL
L
Luis Campusano
(C) 10-day IL — Campusano (toe) will embark on a rehab assignment with Triple-A El Paso later this week, Annie Heilbrunn of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
10-Day-IL
N
Nick Pivetta
(SP) 60-day IL — Pivetta (forearm) threw a light bullpen session Saturday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Matt Waldron
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldron (forearm) struck out four and allowed two earned runs on two hits and four walks across 2.2 innings Thursday in a rehab start with Triple-A El Paso.
15-Day-IL
L
Lucas Giolito
(SP) 15-day IL — Giolito was placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday, retroactive to Monday, with right elbow inflammation.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Musgrove
(SP) 60-day IL — Musgrove (elbow) started playing catch in late May, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
R
Ramon Laureano
(LF) 60-day IL — Laureano underwent surgery Friday to repair his torn right labrum, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jeremiah Estrada
(RP) 15-day IL — Estrada (2-2) picked up the loss after giving up the eventual game-winning run in a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yu Darvish
(SP) out — Darvish (elbow) revealed Tuesday in a social media post that he has resumed playing catch.
Out
B
Bryan Hoeing
(RP) 60-day IL — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL

Los Angeles Dodgers

W
Will Smith
(C) 10-day IL — Manager Dave Roberts said Wednesday that Smith (neck) is expected to remain out until after the All-Star break, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tyler Glasnow
(SP) 60-day IL — Glasnow (back) has been cleared to begin a throwing program, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Treinen
(RP) 15-day IL — Treinen does not have any structural damage in his injured right elbow, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
B
Blake Snell
(SP) 60-day IL — Snell (elbow) threw a 15-pitch bullpen session Friday, and manager Dave Roberts said it went well, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Landon Knack
(SP) 60-day IL — Knack (chest) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday, yielding two runs on five hits and one walk over 1.1 innings.
60-Day-IL
E
Edwin Diaz
(RP) 60-day IL — Diaz (elbow) is throwing in the bullpen Friday at Dodger Stadium, reports Jack Harris of the California Post.
60-Day-IL
E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 10-day IL — Hernandez (oblique) has started some baseball activities but remains in the early stages of his rehab, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday, yielding one hit and one walk over two-thirds of a scoreless frame.
60-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — Miller (shoulder/back) will resume throwing off the mound this week, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts revealed Tuesday that Stone has been unable to ramp up his throwing without feeling soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 60-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Ben Casparius
(RP) 60-day IL — Casparius (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
San Diego Padres
Padres
7
-
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
12
San Diego Padres 1.5
55% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers

+2.9 EV
per $100 wagered
San Diego Padres 55% Lean
OMEGA model sees no actionable edge on this game. Model vs sharp money: massive divergence on Dodgers-Padres. Bayesian over 9.5 has +15pp edge but Pinnacle disagrees. Sharp money on Dodgers spread. Pass or tiny plays only.
39% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 39%
Book Implied 31%
Edge +7.5%
Line Movement
Open Home -1.5 / Total 9.5 / ML Home -200
Current Home -1.5 / Total 9.5 / ML Home -219
Movement No significant movement detected. ML has moved slightly toward home (from -200 to -219), indicating public steam on the Dodgers.
No significant situational flags detected. Both teams have similar rest and travel conditions. Injury impact roughly equal (-6.9% each). Weather: Sunny, 71°F, 9 mph wind. Slight breeze may affect fly balls but not extreme. Starting pitchers: Roki Sasaki (ERA 4.88) vs Randy Vasquez (ERA 4.44) - both mediocre, no clear advantage.
Away moneyline shows +7.5pp edge (38.9% vs 31.4%), but edge is below the 10% MLB moneyline floor and the 5% buffer above breakeven (35.9%). Sharp money and whales heavily favor home, creating a strong contrarian signal. However, model agreement is very low, making this edge unreliable.
FULL ANALYSIS
Massive model-market divergence here. OMEGA's Poisson model projects a 22.5 total (clearly wrong) and a pick'em spread, while the market has Dodgers -1.5 and total 9.5. The Bayesian fusion heavily favors the over (65.2%) but that's driven by the flawed Poisson model. Sharp money and whales are all over the Dodgers, creating a strong contrarian signal against the model's away lean. Given the model agreement is VERY LOW (26.4%), we default to the sharp side on the spread but with minimal confidence. The only bet with a positive Bayesian edge not contradicted by sharp money is the over, but the +EV analysis shows Pinnacle sees the under as the value side. This is a game to watch, not bet. Small leans on Padres spread and over total, but both are low confidence.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 17.2% favoring home side, strong signal. Whale volume is extreme ($1.7M, 76% on home). Prediction markets slightly lower than sharp books, but overall consensus leans home. Contrarian confluence: sharp money and whales align on home, while model and prediction markets are split. We default to sharp money side.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD San Diego Padres 1.5
+2.9 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE San Diego Padres None
+8.1 EV 50%
TOTAL over 9.5
+24.5 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
San Diego Padres 178
  • Bayesian edge +7.5pp, but fails the 5% buffer above breakeven (35.9%)
  • Sharp money and whales massively favor home
  • Contrarian signal is weak given low model agreement
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
San Diego Padres 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior shows +3.9pp edge for away cover (53.9% vs 50% market), but sharp money strongly favors home
  • This is a contrarian bet with low confidence due to model disagreement
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 9.5
  • Bayesian posterior shows +15.2pp edge for over (65.2% vs 50% market)
  • However, +EV analysis (Pinnacle fair value) shows over at 48.2%, indicating market overpricing
  • Model agreement is very low, and the OMEGA line total of 22.5 is clearly an artifact
  • Confidence is reduced substantially
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Model shows slight home edge at pick'em spread but data quality poor; under 22.5 has massive MC edge but total is unrealistically high.
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