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San Francisco Giants
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Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
New York Mets New York Mets -1.5
"Mets ML -136 (+11.2 EV): 64% model prob vs 57.6% implied w/ Soto carrying offense vs depleted Giants staff"
EV / $100
+3.8
Win Prob
64%
Edge
+14.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
64%
TOTAL over 7.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +136.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.5
Win Prob
36.5%
ML
174 / -174

Player Props Engine

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New York Mets

San Francisco Giants

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - 117 / -130 ↑ -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-149) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-112)
Fair Value PIN DE-VIG -139 / 139 123 / -123 O/U -104 / 104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Mets

M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Minter (lat) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets outrighted Waddell to Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

San Francisco Giants

J
Jose Butto
(RP) 15-day IL — The Giants placed Butto on the 15-day injured list Thursday with right forearm fatigue, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joel Peguero
(RP) 15-day IL — Peguero (hamstring) threw a 20-pitch live batting practice session Monday, Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sam Hentges
(RP) 15-day IL — Hentges (knee/shoulder) threw 20 pitches during his live batting practice in Arizona on Monday, Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reiver Sanmartin
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Sanmartin (hip) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
P
Parks Harber
(3B) out — The Giants announced Wednesday that Harber has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 right hamstring strain and will require 4-to-6 weeks of recovery time, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
Out
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants signed Foley (shoulder) to a one-year contract Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-149)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Mike Tauchman Out
A.J. Minter 15-Day-IL
Jose Butto 15-Day-IL
Joel Peguero 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants

+3.8 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Mets 65% Sharp Lean
"Mets ML -136 (+11.2 EV): 64% model prob vs 57.6% implied w/ Soto carrying offense vs depleted Giants staff"
64% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 64%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +14.0%
Line Movement
Current NYM -136 / SF +113 / Total 7.5
Movement No movement data
+11.2 EV on Mets ML at -136; breakeven 57.6% but model sees 64% true win prob
Model: 54.7% win rate | n=139 — Based on N=139 MLB graded outcomes; recent 7d +3.4u P&L
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson projects absurd 12-12 scoring (total 24.0) vs market 7.5, creating over value despite Oracle under tendencies. Mets ML +EV at 64% model prob vs 57.6% implied, driven by Soto .333 BA edge over Giants injuries. Yesterday's Mets ML/spread losses but under 24.0 cashed; model 54.7% MLB (N=139).
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Mets -1.5
+3.8 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
+11.2 EV 64% 1u
TOTAL over 7.5
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 74%
New York Mets -124
  • Our 67.4% prob vs -124 implied 55.4% = 12% edge after ML value filter
SPREAD PICK
● 69%
New York Mets -3.0
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market -3.0 creates 3pt CLV opportunity on Mets
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 24.0
  • Omega total 24.0 model projection extremely low vs typical MLB 8.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Omega 0.0 spread vs market -3.0 = Mets -3.0 CLV edge + 12% ML prob overlay at -124
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