MLS
Sporting Kansas City
City
Portland Timbers
Timbers
Whale Activity Detected
$19583 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong away consensus (74% of whale volume).
Whales: away
Polymarket: 19 trades
Largest: $2557
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +4.0
Win Prob
43.8%
ML
128 / -128
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGASporting Kansas City
Portland Timbers
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
2.5
Moneyline
POR -144
/
SPO 144
Win Probability
59%
-
41%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Sporting Kansas City @ Portland Timbers
+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Sporting Kansas City
65%
Sharp Lean
"SKC +1.5 -175 (omega even vs mkt -1.5, +2.1EV); O3.5 +21EV (7.5 model total misprice)"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
39%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-10.8%
Line Movement
Current
POR -1.5 (+125)/SKC +1.5 (-175) | Total 3.5 (-110 assumed) | ML POR -200/SKC +425
Movement
No significant line movement detected.
Huge +EV on SKC ML (+425) from 39.2% model prob vs 19% implied breakeven.
FULL ANALYSIS
Market overprices POR -200 ML (66.7% implied) vs bayesian 60.8% home/39.2% SKC, yielding +105 EV on +425. Omega even spread crushes -1.5 POR pricing; MC 6.5 total dwarfs 3.5 line (+13.7pp over edge). Moderate whales on SKC + Portland turf pace confirm high-scoring even spot.
SHARP MONEY
Moderate whale volume ($19,583, 75% confidence, 8 wallets) on SKC.
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
39%
Sporting Kansas City 425
- Bayesian fusion posterior 39.2% away win vs market 19% implied (+20.2pp edge); omega ML SKC -128 vs market +425
SPREAD PICK
●
65%
Sporting Kansas City 1.5
- Omega spread even (0.0) vs market POR -1.5 (1.5pt edge to SKC cover); MC projects 3.3-3.2 (+0.1 home margin)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
62%
OVER 3.5
- Bayesian posterior 63.7% over 3.5 (+13.7pp edge); omega total 7.5, Dixon-Coles 12.8 lambda, MC 6.5 expected
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
SKC +1.5 -175 (omega even vs mkt -1.5, +2.1EV); O3.5 +21EV (7.5 model total misprice)
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