Home › WNBA › Washington Mystics @ Toronto Tempo
WNBA
Washington Mystics
Washington Mystics
Mystics
68 - 65
Final
Toronto Tempo
Tempo
Toronto Tempo
Full Game Analysis
WNBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Toronto Tempo Toronto Tempo 1.5
"Toronto +1.5 (MC +2.6 home margin, injury net +6.9%) + over 159.5 (+4.9pp Bayesian edge vs suppressed line), +12.3EV spread"
EV / $100
+12.3
Win Prob
51%
Edge
+1.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Toronto Tempo None
55%
TOTAL over 159.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
-2.5
Edge: -1.0
Total
179.0
Edge: +19.5
Win Prob
50.5%
ML
-102 / 102

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Washington Mystics

Toronto Tempo

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Box Score
FINAL
Washington Mystics
Mystics
68
-
Toronto Tempo
Tempo
65
Toronto Tempo 1.5
60% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Washington Mystics @ Toronto Tempo

+12.3 EV
per $100 wagered
Toronto Tempo 60% Lean
"Toronto +1.5 (MC +2.6 home margin, injury net +6.9%) + over 159.5 (+4.9pp Bayesian edge vs suppressed line), +12.3EV spread"
51% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 51%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +1.3%
Line Movement
Current Washington Mystics -1.5 (-125) / Toronto Tempo +1.5 (+105) | Total 159.5 | ML Toronto Tempo -108 / Washington Mystics -112
Movement No significant line movement detected
Net injury impact favors home (+6.9%: Toronto -6.9% vs Washington -13.8%)
Slight negative EV on home ML; positive EV on home spread cover (+1.5) at ~61% our prob vs 48.8% implied and total over at 54.9% vs 50% implied
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega/MC project home +2.6 margin (90.8-88.1 exp score) vs market shading road -1.5; net injuries crush Washington more (-13.8% vs -6.9%). Total suppressed at 159.5 despite 179 omega/203 decomposed/MC~171 mean—over posterior +4.9pp. Minor whale away ignored vs quant convergence.
SHARP MONEY
Minor whale volume ($4,646, 1 wallet) on away; no sharp book or steam data
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Toronto Tempo 1.5
+12.3 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Toronto Tempo None
-1.2 EV 55%
TOTAL over 159.5
+4.5 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Toronto Tempo -108
  • Home win posterior 51.3% + MC 56.2% home win; omega 50.6% home despite market away shade
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Toronto Tempo 1.5
  • MC sims project home +2.6 margin (home covers +1.5 ~61%) vs market +1.5 line; Bayesian models + injuries net home edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 159.5
  • Over posterior 54.9% (+4.9pp edge) at low 159.5 line; omega 179.0 + decomposed ratings 203.0 vs MC mean ~170.6
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Market total 159.5 crushed vs Omega 179 (+19.5 edge) and 54.9% Bayesian over prob, injuries fade TOR but models slight home
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