English Premier League
Burnley
Burnley
Leeds United
United
Whale Activity Detected
$4078 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong away consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: away
Polymarket: 6 trades
Largest: $680
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGABurnley
Leeds United
Betting Odds Comparison
| Source | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Consensus | - | -248 / 773 ↑ | - |
| Market Consensus | -1.25 (-112) | - | - |
| Market Consensus | - | - | Over 2.75 (-112) |
| De-Vigged Fair Value | -108 / 108 | -367 / 367 | O/U -107 / 107 |
Line Movement
Open
Current
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Burnley @ Leeds United
+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Leeds United
57%
Lean
"Leeds -1.5 +105 value (+4.2 EV) as 70% ML posterior implies 55% cover vs Burnley road trash (4-8-22)"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
70%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+19.7%
Line Movement
Current
Leeds -1.5 (+105 Leeds / -145 Burnley), Total 2.5 (-110), ML Leeds -230 / Burnley +600
Movement
No significant movement detected
FULL ANALYSIS
Leeds 70% posterior vs Burnley's dismal 4-8-22 away record sets home edge, but -230 ML juice kills value—+105 on -1.5 spread offers 55% model cover vs 49% breakeven. Under 2.5 fits low-output teams in 45F conditions (EPL poor attacks average <2.5). Minor away whale ignored vs Kalshi alignment.
SHARP MONEY
Minor whale volume ($4k) 100% on away from 1 wallet, but low lifetime profit and contradicts Kalshi 68% home
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
62%
Leeds United -230
- Bayesian posterior 69.7% matches devigged market but -230 juice erases edge (breakeven 69.7%, need 75%+)
SPREAD PICK
○
57%
Leeds United -1.5
- 70% ML posterior implies ~55% cover -1.5 via Poisson home edge vs poor Burnley away (4-8-22), +105 price beats 49% breakeven
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 2.5
- Burnley poor attack (4 wins away), Leeds mid-table defense, 45F cool weather limits pace vs EPL avg 2.8 goals
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Leeds -1.5 +105 value vs juiced ML; 55% cover est >48.8% breakeven despite 0% Bayesian edge
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