Home › MLB › Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves
MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
3 - 1
Final
Atlanta Braves
Braves
Atlanta Braves
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
61% Lean
61% Lean
SPREAD
Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 1.5
"No moneyline edge (52.1% vs 52.1%, EV 0.0); only lean is Braves +1.5 with 16% sharp RLM vs extreme whale fade"
EV / $100
+1.4
Win Prob
52%
Edge
-0.1%
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
52%
TOTAL under 6.0
57%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Los Angeles Dodgers

Atlanta Braves

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -111 / -109 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -106 / -104 -
Value Line - -114 / -105 -
Sharp Action Best Line -1.5 (210) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-196) ↓ - -
Value Line 1.5 (-215) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 6.0 (-120)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.0 (-116)
Value Line - - Over 6.0 (-114)
De-Vigged Fair Value -185 / 185 -101 / 101 O/U -108 / 108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Los Angeles Dodgers

M
Miguel Rojas
(2B) day-to-day — Rojas (shoulder) will start at second base and bat sixth in Monday's contest versus the Reds.
Day-To-Day
B
Blake Treinen
(RP) 15-day IL — President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said Saturday that Treinen (shoulder) hasn't been ruled out for a return in the postseason, Jon Paul Hoornstra of Newsweek.com reports.
15-Day-IL
W
Will Klein
(RP) 60-day IL — Klein (elbow) threw live batting practice Tuesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Eric Lauer
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Lauer (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — Stone (shoulder/biceps) resumed his rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday, allowing three runs over two-thirds of an inning.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — Cousins (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday, striking out one and issuing one walk in a scoreless frame.
60-Day-IL
B
Ben Casparius
(RP) 60-day IL — Casparius (shoulder) experienced arm fatigue while on a minor-league rehab assignment and has been shut down from throwing, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 60-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL

Atlanta Braves

M
Martin Perez
(SP) 15-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Friday that Perez (back) will not be available for the NLDS against the Dodgers, Aiden Stepansky of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bryce Elder
(SP) 15-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Friday that Elder (knee) will not be available for the NLDS against the Dodgers, Aiden Stepansky of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hurston Waldrep
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta recalled Waldrep (elbow) from Triple-A Gwinnett on Thursday and placed him on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL
R
Reynaldo Lopez
(RP) 15-day IL — Lopez (4-5) took the loss in Monday's 7-3 loss against the Cubs after allowing five runs on six hits and two walks with two strikeouts over three innings. After the game, manager Walt Weiss stated that Lopez may be placed on the injured list due to a shoulder injury, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Jimenez
(RP) 60-day IL — Jimenez (knee) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Gwinnett on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
S
Spencer Strider
(SP) 60-day IL — Strider (elbow) is not expected to return to Atlanta's active roster before the end of this season, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
S
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP) 60-day IL — Schwellenbach will undergo season-ending surgery to repair a fracture in his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jurickson Profar
(LF) Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
suspension
J
Joey Wentz
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Wentz (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
3
-
Atlanta Braves
Braves
1
Atlanta Braves 1.5
61% conf
L

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+170) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-06T05:53:37.310511 UTC

Retail +170/+210 on Dodgers +1.5 vs Market Consensus fair value of 64.9% for Braves cover creates a massive +EV arbitrage; a 1-run game likely given depleted rosters and no probable pitcher edge.

Moneyline: Los Angeles Dodgers (-104) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-04T22:00:36.879149 UTC

Whale volume ($129,711, EXTREME tier, 73% whale confidence) and Kalshi consensus (50.5%) both lean Dodgers, while sharp moneyline edge is 1.5% to the away side.

Player Prop: under (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-06T05:53:37.348230 UTC

Model projection only (no market line): Ohtani batting .288 with 30 HR but faces a Braves staff that limited him in 2026 H2H; cap at 60 due to unvalidated roster.

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves

+1.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Atlanta Braves 61% Lean
"No moneyline edge (52.1% vs 52.1%, EV 0.0); only lean is Braves +1.5 with 16% sharp RLM vs extreme whale fade"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 52%
Edge -0.1%
Line Movement
Current ATL -109 / LAD -110, Spread 1.5 (ATL -178 / LAD +170), Total 6.0
Movement No significant line movement detected
No positive EV on moneyline; our probability within vig of implied, PASS by rule
FULL ANALYSIS
Coin-flip market with zero Bayesian edge (52.1% posterior vs 52.1% prior). Only signal is Pinnacle spread fair 64.9% home with RLM YES versus EXTREME $166.5K 77% away whale flow across 30 wallets. Degraded 59% data with no pitchers and equal injury drag (-7.8% vs -6.9%) means PASS across the board.
SHARP MONEY
Spread RLM YES with 16.0% Pinnacle vs retail divergence to home (strong), moneyline 1.5% to away (moderate) and EXTREME whale $166,500 to away contradicts; default to sharp Pinnacle home side

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Atlanta Braves 1.5
+1.4 EV 61%
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
52%
TOTAL under 6.0
-6.3 EV 57%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 52%
Atlanta Braves -109
  • Fused posterior 52.1% equals market 52.1% for zero calibrated edge
SPREAD PICK
○ 61%
Atlanta Braves 1.5
  • Market Consensus fair 64.9% vs -178 implied 64.0% with RLM YES on home runline
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
UNDER 6.0
  • Sharp side under with 0.2% weak edge on low 6.0 playoff-type total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Dodgers Bayesian +5.1pp to 58.1% with 4.2-3.9 scoring edge and $91K whale away flow
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