MLB
Washington Nationals
Nationals
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
Player Props Engine
Powered by xAIWashington Nationals
St. Louis Cardinals
Injury Report
Washington Nationals
DJ Herz
(SP)
60-day IL — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Trevor Williams
(SP)
60-day IL — The Nationals announced that Williams (elbow) has resumed his throwing progression and made 25 tosses from 60 feet Wednesday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Joan Adon
(RP)
out — no
Out
Tyler Stuart
(SP)
out — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.
Out
Jarlin Susana
(RP)
out — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
Out
Travis Sykora
(SP)
out — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
Out
St. Louis Cardinals
Hunter Dobbins
(SP)
out — Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Sunday that Dobbins (knee) will begin the season on the injured list, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Out
Lars Nootbaar
(LF)
out — Nootbaar (heels) has been increasing his agility drills and is soon slated to ramp up his running program, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Out
Zack Thompson
(RP)
out — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Out
Ixan Henderson
(SP)
out — Henderson is shut down from throwing in Cardinals camp due to a left flexor strain, Brian Walton of TheCardinalNation.com reports.
Out
Victor Santos
(RP)
out — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Out
Sem Robberse
(SP)
out — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Out
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals
+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Louis Cardinals
55%
LEAN
"Cardinals home ST opener with Nats pitching decimated — model +4.2 EV at -105, fade the thin Nats staff"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
1%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-49.5%
Line Movement
Open
N/A (pre-market)
Current
N/A (pre-market)
Movement
No lines available
Spring training opener
Home field in March (cooler temps favor pitching)
Cardinals minor injuries but deeper roster depth
Model projects Cardinals -110 fair line (implied 52.4%) vs typical -105 market pricing for home teams in early ST; +4.2 EV on home ML
Kelly Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
58%
St. Louis Cardinals -125 (DDN_model fair)
- Home field + superior early leaders (Liberatore 14K), Nats pitching depleted
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Cardinals home with Liberatore edge vs Nats' pitching carnage - model 58% win prob, PASS until lines drop
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