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MLB
Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Chicago Cubs
Cubs
Chicago Cubs
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +39.8% EV ALIGNED
63% Sharp Lean
63% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies None
"Rockies +158 ML has +12.5 EV but conflicting signals; Over 10.0 is the sharpest play with +24.4 EV despite pitcher uncertainty."
EV / $100
+12.5
Win Prob
44%
Edge
+4.8%
Size
1u
SPREAD Colorado Rockies 1.5
60%
TOTAL over 10.0
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.5% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$5078573 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 1153 trades Kalshi: 194 trades Largest: $500000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +12.5
Win Prob
35.9%
ML
179 / -179

Player Props Engine

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Colorado Rockies

Chicago Cubs

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -195 / 160 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -184 / 168 -
Value Line - -205 / 163 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (200) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (109) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 10.0 (-111)
De-Vigged Fair Value 115 / -115 -177 / 177 O/U -104 / 104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Colorado Rockies

B
Brenton Doyle
(CF) 10-day IL — Doyle (oblique) worked in the batting cage Monday, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jordan Beck
(LF) 10-day IL — Beck (hamstring) stretched and did running drills prior to Tuesday's game against the Cubs, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Mickey Moniak
(LF) 10-day IL — Moniak (ankle) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Albuquerque on Thursday, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Chase Dollander
(SP) 60-day IL — Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer said Friday that Dollander will likely undergo surgery to repair the UCL in his right elbow, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jimmy Herget
(RP) 15-day IL — The Rockies sent Herget (shoulder) to Triple-A Albuquerque on Tuesday to begin a rehab assignment.
15-Day-IL
T
Tanner Gordon
(RP) 15-day IL — Gordon (0-1) took the loss Sunday, allowing four runs on six hits and a walk over three-plus innings against San Francisco. He struck out two.
15-Day-IL
W
Welinton Herrera
(RP) 60-day IL — Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer announced Monday that Herrera (elbow) has been diagnosed with a torn UCL and will miss the remainder of the season, Jack Janes of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — Brown (shoulder) had been scheduled to throw a live bullpen session this weekend, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Quintana
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Quintana on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left elbow sprain.
60-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day

Chicago Cubs

E
Edward Cabrera
(SP) day-to-day — Cabrera (4-3) notched the win over Colorado on Thursday, allowing two runs on five hits and two walks while striking out five batters over 5.1 innings.
Day-To-Day
D
Daniel Palencia
(RP) 15-day IL — Palencia (2-1) worked around a walk to toss a scoreless inning of relief and earn the win in Monday's 5-4 victory over the Rockies. He struck out three.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Steele
(SP) 60-day IL — Steele will throw plyo balls for the next week and then progress to throwing a baseball, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Matthew Boyd
(SP) 15-day IL — Boyd (knee/shoulder) will throw an up-down bullpen session Tuesday, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jaxon Wiggins
(SP) day-to-day — The Cubs announced Wednesday that Wiggins (elbow) has resumed throwing bullpen sessions and facing hitters at the organization's complex in Arizona and could soon be ready to pitch in games, MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jameson Taillon
(SP) 15-day IL — Taillon (hamstring) is expected to be sidelined until after the All-Star break, Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hunter Harvey
(RP) 60-day IL — The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Birdsell
(RP) day-to-day — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jeff Brigham
(RP) day-to-day — Brigham was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A St. Paul, retroactive to April 6, with a left oblique strain, TwinsDaily.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Porter Hodge
(RP) 60-day IL — The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Riley Martin
(RP) 15-day IL — Martin has been diagnosed with flexor strain in his left elbow and is expected to miss eight weeks, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Shelby Miller
(RP) 60-day IL — The Cubs placed Miller (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cade Horton
(SP) 60-day IL — The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Austin
(1B) 60-day IL — The Cubs placed Austin (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (200)
Total Over 10.0
Key Injuries
Brenton Doyle 10-Day-IL
Jordan Beck 10-Day-IL
Edward Cabrera Day-To-Day
Daniel Palencia 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs

+12.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Rockies 63% Sharp Lean
"Rockies +158 ML has +12.5 EV but conflicting signals; Over 10.0 is the sharpest play with +24.4 EV despite pitcher uncertainty."
44% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 44%
Book Implied 39%
Edge +4.8%
Line Movement
Current Home -193 / Away +158
Movement No significant movement detected
Model sees significant value on Rockies moneyline due to calibrated edge of +9.4pp, but conflicting sharp signals warrant caution.
FULL ANALYSIS
The Bayesian model sees significant value on the Rockies moneyline (+158) with a +9.4pp edge, but conflicting sharp signals and poor recent ML performance warrant caution. The total of 10.0 is the strongest signal: the fusion model projects 65.2% over probability, yielding a massive +24.4 EV. However, rookie pitcher Sullivan and potential wind effects introduce risk. The spread +1.5 offers thin positive EV but sharp money heavily favors the Cubs, making it a low-conviction lean.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 14.5% favoring home (strong signal), but ML edge only 1.9% favoring away (moderate). Overall sharp consensus leans home.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
+12.5 EV 63% 1u
SPREAD Colorado Rockies 1.5
+3.2 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 10.0
+24.4 EV 65% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 63%
Colorado Rockies 158
  • Bayesian posterior shows 43.6% win probability vs market 38.8%, yielding +12.5 EV per $100
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Colorado Rockies 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior shows 53.9% cover probability vs market 50%, small positive EV
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 10.0
  • Bayesian fusion shows 65.2% over probability vs market 50%, yielding +24.4 EV per $100 due to strong model agreement on high scoring
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Cubs massively overpriced at -230 — our model says 60.7% win prob. Rockies ML +190 gives +12.1 EV. Over 9.5 also has +15.2pp Bayesian edge despite omega's inflated 22.5 total. Split 0.5u each.
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