MLS
Colorado Rapids
Rapids
Minnesota United FC
FC
Whale Activity Detected
$204725 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong home consensus (75% of whale volume).
Whales: home
Polymarket: 98 trades
Kalshi: 217 trades
Largest: $20331
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +5.0
Win Prob
45.3%
ML
121 / -121
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAColorado Rapids
Minnesota United FC
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
4.7
Moneyline
MIN -198
/
COL 198
Win Probability
66%
-
34%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Colorado Rapids @ Minnesota United FC
+-0.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Minnesota United FC
56%
Lean
"MIN ML +1.0 EV Bayesian edge w/ extreme whales; over 2.5 +23.9 EV (65% model prob vs 2.5 line)"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
58%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+8.0%
Line Movement
Current
MIN -0.5 (-140/+100), Total 2.5 (-110/-110), ML -135/+310
Movement
No significant movement
Slight +EV on home ML; massive +23.9 EV on over 2.5
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson+ELO projects pick'em spread (0.0) and 7.5 total vs market -0.5/2.5, but Bayesian fuses to 58% home win edge (+0.5pp) confirmed by extreme $204k whales on home (institutional tier). Total over crushes with 64.9% posterior (+14.9pp vs 50% implied), Dixon-Coles lambdas support high scoring. MC slight away lean (46.9% home win) and VERY_LOW agreement cap to leans; degraded data forces conservative sizing.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume $204k (12 profitable wallets, 76% conviction, institutional tier) on home
MONEYLINE PICK
○
58%
Minnesota United FC -135
- Bayesian posterior 58% exceeds vigged breakeven 57.4% by 0.6pp
SPREAD PICK
○
56%
Minnesota United FC -0.5
- Bayesian home win posterior 58% near breakeven despite Omega pick'em anchor
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
62%
OVER 2.5
- Posterior 64.9% over vs market 50% (+14.9pp edge), Omega total 7.5 vs 2.5 (5pt discrep)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
MNUFC +121 home dog (54% model prob +9pp edge) + extreme $203k whales vs MC away lean
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