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MLB
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Kansas City Royals
Royals
Kansas City Royals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +44.7% EV
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 1.5
"Over 9 +24.5 EV, Bayesian 65% posterior + MC 19.4 total on dual pitching injuries -8.7/-6.4%"
EV / $100
+6.2
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+15.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Kansas City Royals None
57%
TOTAL over 9.0
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$564522 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (89% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 306 trades Kalshi: 65 trades Largest: $22642
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +143.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
40.1%
ML
149 / -149

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Cleveland Guardians

Kansas City Royals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -144 / 121 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -139 / 125 -
Value Line - -150 / 120 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (270) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (145) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-119)
De-Vigged Fair Value 156 / -156 -132 / 132 O/U -111 / 111
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians

G
Gabriel Arias
(SS) 10-day IL — no
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) day-to-day — Hernandez is making progress but is still in the midst of a rehab program after suffering fractures to his left arm and right leg during a Jan. 11 car accident in Venezuela, SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Shawn Armstrong
(RP) 15-day IL — Armstrong struck out one over a scoreless inning to pick up a hold in Friday's 4-1 win over the Cubs.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walters
(RP) 15-day IL — Walters (lat) struck out the side in the eighth inning Friday for Triple-A Columbus.
15-Day-IL

Kansas City Royals

C
Cole Ragans
(SP) day-to-day — Ragans allowed four runs on four hits and three walks while striking out eight over 5.1 innings in a no-decision versus the Mariners on Friday.
Day-To-Day
C
Carlos Estevez
(RP) 15-day IL — Estevez (foot) was removed from his rehab appearance at Triple-A Omaha on Wednesday due to shoulder discomfort, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
N
Noah Cameron
(SP) day-to-day — Cameron (back) said he could have pitched through the back tightness that resulted in him being scratched from his scheduled start against the Guardians on Tuesday, with manager Matt Quatraro adding that the left-hander should be ready to rejoin the rotation after missing just one start, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Bailey Falter
(RP) 15-day IL — Falter (elbow) allowed no hits or walks with two strikeouts across 1.1 scoreless innings with Triple-A Omaha on Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
J
Jonathan India
(2B) 10-day IL — The Royals announced Tuesday that India underwent season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left shoulder.
10-Day-IL
J
James McArthur
(RP) 60-day IL — McArthur (elbow) is expected to resume a throwing program Monday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyson Guerrero
(RP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Simonelli
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Javier Vaz
(2B) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
Alec Marsh
(SP) 60-day IL — The Royals placed Marsh (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (270)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Gabriel Arias 10-Day-IL
Carlos Hernandez Day-To-Day
Cole Ragans Day-To-Day
Carlos Estevez 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals

+6.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Guardians 62% Lean
"Over 9 +24.5 EV, Bayesian 65% posterior + MC 19.4 total on dual pitching injuries -8.7/-6.4%"
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +15.2%
Line Movement
Current Royals -1.5 -143 / Guardians +1.5 +118, ML Royals -143 / Guardians +119, Total 9.0
Movement No significant line movement detected
pitcher_injuries_home pitcher_injuries_away
+24.5 EV on over at -110 (0.652*90.91 - 0.348*100); ML both sides negative EV due vig
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian over posterior 65.2% (+15.2pp edge) crushes market 9.0 total with MC 9.7-9.7 (19.4 combined) and omega 22.5 amid Royals -8.7% pitching hit (Ragans/Falter out/DTD). MC even 46% Guardians win prob vs Royals -143 ML but omega ML -149 home; value Guardians +1.5 on 0.0 anchor. Extreme $562k whales (102 wallets 90% home) + sharp 13.8% spread home conflict VERY_LOW model agreement.
SHARP MONEY
Spread sharp edge 13.8% strong signal home, ML moderate away offset by extreme whale volume home $562k 90% conviction
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cleveland Guardians 1.5
+6.2 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Kansas City Royals None
-3.1 EV 57% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.0
+24.5 EV 65% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 57%
Kansas City Royals -143
  • Bayesian posterior 57.0% home fused (market prior 58.9%, edge -1.9pp) confirmed extreme whales
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Cleveland Guardians 1.5
  • Omega independent spread 0.0 and MC margin -0.0 (std 4.5) vs market Royals -1.5 -143 heavy juice
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 9.0
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% over vs 50% market (+15.2pp edge), MC projects 19.4 total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Guardians +2.2 (56% cover +6pp edge, Omega even line) + Over 8.5 (65% prob vs low market total)
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