Home › NFL › Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
NFL
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs
24 - 28
Final
Denver Broncos
Broncos
Denver Broncos
Full Game Analysis
NFL
Ω DDN SI PICK EARLY VALUE
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City Chiefs 1.5
"Quant edge: OMEGA prices Chiefs ~69% win chance (fair ML -222) vs market pick'em at -108 — take KC +1.5 / ML and under 41.5."
EV / $100
+9.6
Win Prob
69%
Edge
+17.1%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Kansas City Chiefs None
64%
TOTAL under 41.5
58%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
DDN SI LINE DDN SI Independent Projection
Spread
5.0
Edge: +6.5
Total
37.5
Edge: -4.0
Win Prob
31.0%
ML
222 / -222

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Kansas City Chiefs

Denver Broncos

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 100 / -120 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -110 / -100 -
Value Line - -200 / 155 -
Sharp Action Best Line 1.0 (-110) - -
Market Consensus 1.0 (-119) ↓ - -
Value Line -3.5 (-127) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 40.5 (-110)
Market Consensus - - Over 42.5 (-102)
De-Vigged Fair Value -114 / 114 -105 / 105 O/U 104 / -104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Kansas City Chiefs

P
Peter Woods
(DT) questionable — Woods (neck) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's contest against the Broncos.
Questionable
G
Garrett Nussmeier
(QB) out — Nussmeier (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against Denver, though he will be available as the team's emergency quarterback.
Out
B
Ben VanSumeren
(FB) out — inactive
Out
D
Diego Pounds
(OT) out — inactive
Out
J
Jack Pyburn
(LB) out — inactive
Out
T
Tyreke Smith
(DE) out — inactive
Out
R
R Mason Thomas
(DE) active
Active
M
Mansoor Delane
(CB) out — Delane (shoulder) has been downgraded from questionable to out for Sunday's game against the Broncos.
Out
L
L'Jarius Sneed
(CB) Injured Reserve — The Chiefs placed Sneed (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.
Injured Reserve
J
Jaylon Moore
(OT) active — Moore (concussion) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Broncos.
Active
X
Xavier Worthy
(WR) active — Rashee Rice (knee/hamstring) has no injury designation for Sunday's game against the Broncos, so Worthy will move back into his WR2 role for Week 8.
Active
T
Travis Kelce
(TE) active — Kelce (ankle) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Broncos.
Active
R
Rashee Rice
(WR) active — Rice (hamstring) will play in Sunday's game against the Broncos, Matt McMullen of the Chiefs' official website reports.
Active
O
Omarr Norman-Lott
(DT) out — The Chiefs designated Norman-Lott (knee) to return from injured reserve Wednesday.
Out
C
Cyrus Allen
(WR) active — Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said Wednesday that Allen will "get a little bit more [snaps]" during Sunday's game against the Broncos, Nate Taylor of ESPN.com reports.
Active
H
Harrison Butker
(PK) active — Head coach Andy Reid said Wednesday that Butker will "probably" serve as the Chiefs' kicker in Sunday's game against the Broncos, Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star reports.
Active
C
Chamarri Conner
(S) active — Conner finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to Seattle with seven tackles (two solo).
Active
N
Nohl Williams
(CB) active — Williams finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks with 10 tackles (four solo) and one interception.
Active
N
Nick Bolton
(LB) active — Bolton registered 11 tackles (six solo) during the Chiefs' 20-3 loss to the Seahawks on Sunday.
Active
D
Drue Tranquill
(LB) active — Tranquill finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks with 12 tackles (four solo).
Active
A
Andrew Armstrong
(WR) active — Armstrong caught one of two targets for three yards during Sunday night's 20-3 loss to Seattle.
Active
N
Noah Gray
(TE) active — Gray caught three passes on as many targets for 44 yards during Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks.
Active
E
Emmett Johnson
(RB) active — Johnson caught two of three passes for 17 yards and returned three kickoffs for 81 yards during Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. He also added two tackles on special teams.
Active
J
Jadon Canady
(CB) active
Active
P
Patrick Mahomes
(QB) active — Mahomes completed 19 of 33 passes for 165 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. He added two rushing attempts for 14 yards.
Active

Denver Broncos

B
Brandon Jones
(S) questionable — Jones (hamstring) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's contest against the Chiefs, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports.
Questionable
K
Kris Abrams-Draine
(CB) questionable — Abrams-Draine (ankle) is questionable to return to Sunday's contest versus the Chiefs, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports.
Questionable
C
Courtland Sutton
(WR) active — Sutton briefly left Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Zac Stevens of TheDNVR.com reports.
Active
Z
Zach Allen
(DE) active — Allen (hamstring) is active for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports.
Active
S
Sam Ehlinger
(QB) out — Ehlinger (coach's decision) is inactive but will be the third emergency quarterback against the Chiefs on Sunday, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports.
Out
T
Tyler Onyedim
(DT) out — inactive
Out
G
Gavin Ortega
(OT) out — inactive
Out
T
Talanoa Hufanga
(S) out — inactive
Out
J
Jordan Jackson
(DT) out — inactive
Out
D
Dallen Bentley
(TE) out — inactive
Out
K
Kage Casey
(OT) out — inactive
Out
G
Garett Bolles
(OT) active
Active
J
Jaylen Waddle
(WR) active
Active
T
Taylor Rapp
(S) active — The Broncos signed Rapp off the practice squad to the active roster Saturday, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports.
Active
C
Cody Schrader
(RB) active — The Broncos elevated Schrader from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday, Zac Stevens of TheDNVR.com reports.
Active
R
RJ Harvey
(RB) Injured Reserve — The Broncos placed Harvey (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Injured Reserve
J
J.K. Dobbins
(RB) active — Dobbins and Jonah Coleman will lead the Broncos' backfield against the Chiefs on Sunday due to the absence of RJ Harvey (knee), Eric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports.
Active
J
Jonah Coleman
(RB) active — Coleman said Friday that he'll be ready for a larger role if that's what the team needs in the absence of RJ Harvey, who has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Kansas City due to a knee injury, Zac Stevens of TheDNVR.com reports.
Active
M
Marvin Mims Jr.
(WR) active — Mims (ankle) practiced fully Thursday,Zac Stevens of TheDNVR.com reports.
Active
P
Pat Surtain II
(CB) active — Surtain (ankle) was a full practice participant Wednesday, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports.
Active
A
Alex Singleton
(LB) active — Singleton recorded 19 tackles (12 solo) including 1.0 sacks during Sunday's 30-16 win at Arizona.
Active
E
Evan Engram
(TE) active — Engram caught one of three targets for two yards during Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals.
Active
T
Troy Franklin
(WR) active — Franklin failed to bring in either of his two targets in the Broncos' 30-16 win over the Cardinals on Sunday.
Active
B
Bo Nix
(QB) active — Nix completed 15 of 29 passes for 222 yards and a touchdown while rushing seven times for 73 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals.
Active
W
Wil Lutz
(PK) active — Lutz went 3-for-3 on field-goal tries and made all three of his PATs during Sunday's 30-16 win over Arizona.
Active
Box Score
FINAL
Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs
24
-
Denver Broncos
Broncos
28
Kansas City Chiefs 1.5
65% conf
L

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Kansas City Chiefs 1.5 (-120) LOSS · Recorded 2026-10-30T21:12:54.071532 UTC

OMEGA independent line (6.5pt edge, expected score 21.3-16.2 away) prices Kansas City as a multi-point favorite while Denver is only -1.5

Player Prop: over (-110) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T19:14:56.308075 UTC

Model projection only (roster data unavailable, no bookmaker lines supplied): Denver's thin secondary without Hufanga plus likely KC game-script deficit moderately favors passing volume, but no market comparison — thin evidence

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

+9.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Kansas City Chiefs 65% Sharp Lean
"Quant edge: OMEGA prices Chiefs ~69% win chance (fair ML -222) vs market pick'em at -108 — take KC +1.5 / ML and under 41.5."
69% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 69%
Book Implied 52%
Edge +17.1%
Line Movement
Current Spread: Denver -1.5 | Total: 41.5 | ML: Denver -112 / Kansas City -108
Movement No movement data supplied
HIGH ALTITUDE (Denver, 5280ft): +20% over bias Denver 3-0 at home this season
OMEGA model favors Kansas City heavily; market price of -108 implies only 51.9% for the Chiefs against our 69% posterior — stated edge is large but the gap between model and market warrants discounting (market is usually more informed on quarterly-edge NFL games)
FULL ANALYSIS
DraftKings prices this at Denver -1.5 / total 41.5, but OMEGA's Poisson (70%) + ELO (30%) layer puts expected score at 21.3-16.2 Chiefs with a fair home ML of +222 — a 6.5-point spread edge and ~69% away win prob (model fair ML -222). That gap is unusually wide on a 5-1 vs 5-2 divisional game, so treat it as a signal to take Kansas City +1.5 at -120 and Chiefs ML -108 rather than a lock. Total is a softer angle: model total 38.4 (decomposed 37.5) vs market 41.5, and the altitude over-boost already applied keeps the under at LEAN 58. Sample confidence high (3567 graded logistic picks) but edge display capped at 65 per unvalidated-edge-slate discretion.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Kansas City Chiefs 1.5
+9.6 EV 65% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Kansas City Chiefs None
+15.8 EV 64% 0.5u
TOTAL under 41.5
+2.0 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 64%
Kansas City Chiefs -108
  • Chiefs at -108 vs a model posterior of ~69% win probability (OMEGA away ML fair line -222) leaves a large model-vs-market gap
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Kansas City Chiefs 1.5
  • OMEGA independent line (6.5pt edge, expected score 21.3-16.2 away) prices Kansas City as a multi-point favorite while Denver is only -1.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 41.5
  • OMEGA total and decomposed-ratings total 38.4 both sit 3-4 points under the market 41.5
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
OMEGA line Chiefs -5 vs market DEN -1.5 = +7.4 EV on KC -1.5 (-105); under 40.5 only a lean.
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