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MLB
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Houston Astros
Astros
Houston Astros
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV EARLY VALUE
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians -2.2
"Over 8.5 is the play — Bayesian fusion shows 65.2% probability vs 50% market, a +15.2pp edge with Monte Carlo projecting 19.5 total runs"
EV / $100
+6.3
Win Prob
47%
Edge
-8.1%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Guardians None
58%
TOTAL over 8.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$709115 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (74% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 329 trades Kalshi: 12 trades Largest: $42918
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
32.6%
ML
207 / -207

Player Props Engine

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Cleveland Guardians

Houston Astros

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -147 / 123 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -140 / 127 -
Value Line - -143 / 115 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (295) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (150) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-102)
De-Vigged Fair Value 161 / -161 -134 / 134 O/U 105 / -105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians

C
Chase DeLauter
(RF) 10-day IL — The Guardians placed DeLauter (rib) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tanner Burns
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Jose Ramirez
(3B) 10-day IL — Ramirez underwent surgery to address the hamate bone fracture in his left hand Tuesday and is expected to be sidelined 5-to-7 weeks, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Angel Martinez
(LF) 10-day IL — Martinez (foot) will be placed on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, reports Cade Cracas of Sports Illustrated.
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) day-to-day — Hernandez (shoulder) began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Friday.
Day-To-Day

Houston Astros

C
Cristian Javier
(SP) 60-day IL — Javier (shoulder) will make another appearance Sunday for Triple-A Sugar Land in what should be his final rehab start, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Lance McCullers Jr.
(SP) 15-day IL — McCullers (shoulder) threw a 25-pitch live batting practice session Friday at Daikin Park, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 60-day IL — Blanco (elbow) struck out five over three scoreless frames in his first rehab start with the Astros' Florida Complex League affiliate Friday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Braden Shewmake
(SS) 10-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Shewmake (adductor) has taken part in baseball activity and is working his way through a running progression at the team's facility in Florida, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
L
LaMonte Wade Jr.
(1B) 10-day IL — Wade left Monday's game against the Angels with right hamstring soreness, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
N
Nick Allen
(SS) 10-day IL — Allen was removed from Sunday's game against the Athletics due to left hamstring discomfort.
10-Day-IL
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros announced Friday that Walter (elbow) is in the midst of a throwing progression at the team's complex in West Palm Beach, Fla., Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Bennett Sousa
(RP) 15-day IL — The Astros announced Friday that Sousa (elbow) has begun a throwing progression, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Correa
(SS) 60-day IL — Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — Wesneski (elbow) has progressed to throwing live batting practice this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Walker Janek
(C) day-to-day — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (295)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Chase DeLauter 10-Day-IL
Tanner Burns Day-To-Day
Cristian Javier 60-Day-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros

+6.3 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Guardians 56% Lean
"Over 8.5 is the play — Bayesian fusion shows 65.2% probability vs 50% market, a +15.2pp edge with Monte Carlo projecting 19.5 total runs"
47% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 47%
Book Implied 55%
Edge -8.1%
Line Movement
Current Home -122 / Away +107
Movement No significant movement detected
Negative EV on the Astros moneyline — the market has overpriced Houston. The calibrated posterior (46.8%) is well below the market prior (54.9%), suggesting the Guardians offer better value on the moneyline.
FULL ANALYSIS
The market total of 8.5 is a clear outlier — OMEGA's Poisson model projects 22.5, Monte Carlo sims show 19.5, and the Bayesian fusion gives the over a 65.2% probability (vs 50% market). That's a +15.2pp edge, the strongest signal in the data. The spread is also mispriced: OMEGA sees a pick'em while the market lays -2.2 with Houston. Sharp money favors the Astros on the spread (13.6% edge), but the quantitative models disagree — this is a contrarian spot where the models may be ahead. The Guardians moneyline at +107 offers positive EV (53.2% posterior vs 45.1% implied). Data quality is degraded (68%), so confidence is tempered, but the total over is the standout play.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 13.6% favoring home, with strong signal. Whale signals also heavily favor home (94% confidence, $340K volume). However, the Bayesian fusion and OMEGA line both disagree with this sharp signal — suggesting the sharp money may be overcorrecting or the market is inefficient on the run line.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cleveland Guardians -2.2
+6.3 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Guardians None
+4.2 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+15.2 EV 65% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Cleveland Guardians 107
  • Bayesian fusion posterior (53.2% away win) vs market implied (45.1%) yields +8.1pp edge
  • OMEGA independent line also favors Guardians (32.6% win prob vs market 54.9% — models see more value in Cleveland)
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Cleveland Guardians -2.2
  • OMEGA independent line shows 0.0 spread vs market -2.2 — a 2.2-point gap suggesting the Guardians are undervalued by the market
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian fusion posterior shows 65.2% over probability vs market 50.0% — a massive +15.2pp edge
  • OMEGA independent total is 22.5, suggesting the market total of 8.5 is severely understated
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Guardians at +105 offer marginal 2.8pp edge but whale money ($332K favoring Houston) + poor data quality (46%) keep confidence capped at 55
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