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New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
San Francisco Giants
Giants
San Francisco Giants
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
67% Sharp Lean
67% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants
"Giants +125 value: Yankees ace-less bullpen vs Webb in Oracle, model +3.8 EV"
EV / $100
+3.8
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-4.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD San Francisco Giants +1.5
64%
TOTAL Under 7.5 7.5
70%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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New York Yankees

San Francisco Giants

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada Best Line - 109 / -131 ↑ -
Pinnacle - 114 / -124 -
Bovada Best Line 3.0 (-370) - -
Pinnacle 1.5 (-149) ↓ - -
Pinnacle - - Over 8.5 (-106)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) is tentatively slated to begin throwing bullpens before the end of March and could face hitters in April or May, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — The Yankees placed Cole on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with Tommy John surgery recovery.
15-Day-IL
A
Anthony Volpe
(SS) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Sunday that Volpe (shoulder) could begin a minor-league rehab assignment around the second week of April and will require the equivalent of a full spring training before joining the Yankees, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Rodon (elbow) is not expected to pitch in a Grapefruit League game this spring, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Rafael Montero
(RP) day-to-day — Montero continues to have visa issues and hasn't yet arrived at Yankees camp, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day

San Francisco Giants

H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
S
Sam Hentges
(RP) 15-day IL — The Giants placed Hentges (shoulder/knee) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Reiver Sanmartin
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Sanmartin (hip) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Joel Peguero
(RP) 15-day IL — Peguero was diagnosed with a Grade 2 hamstring strain Wednesday, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Parks Harber
(3B) out — The Giants announced Wednesday that Harber has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 right hamstring strain and will require 4-to-6 weeks of recovery time, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
Out
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants signed Foley (shoulder) to a one-year contract Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ San Francisco Giants
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-370)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Clarke Schmidt 60-Day-IL
Gerrit Cole 15-Day-IL
Hayden Birdsong 60-Day-IL
Sam Hentges 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ San Francisco Giants

+3.8 EV
per $100 wagered
San Francisco Giants 67% Sharp Lean
"Giants +125 value: Yankees ace-less bullpen vs Webb in Oracle, model +3.8 EV"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.0%
Line Movement
Open omega_model
Current Yankees -145 / Giants +125 | Spread: Yankees -1.5 (+140) / Giants +1.5 (-165) | Total: 7.5 (-110)
Movement N/A - model generated lines
Early season interleague Road favorite missing ace starters Oracle Park under bias
Giants ML +125 offers +3.8 EV despite model projecting them as live dog in pitcher-friendly park
Model: 57.1% win rate | n=21 — Based on N=21 graded MLB outcomes; small sample reduces confidence
FULL ANALYSIS
Giants get model value at +125 with Logan Webb facing Yankees bullpen game (Cole/Rodon/Schmidt all IL). Oracle Park projects 7.2 total vs 7.5 line after Giants went 0-2 early incl H2H loss. Yankees missing Volpe weakens infield vs Webb's groundball attack (48% GB rate).
SHARP MONEY
Model projects Giants value with intact rotation vs Yankees decimated pitching staff (Cole/Rodon/Schmidt out)
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE San Francisco Giants
+3.8 EV 67% 1u
SPREAD San Francisco Giants +1.5
+2.1 EV 64% 0.5u
TOTAL Under 7.5 7.5
+4.2 EV 70% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
San Francisco Giants +125
  • Oracle Park suppresses runs +12% historically while Giants staff intact vs Yankees missing Cole/Rodon/Volpe
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
San Francisco Giants
  • Model expected score Giants 3.9-3.6 Yankees; Giants cover 1.5 in 68% sims at Oracle
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 69%
UNDER 7.0 7.0
  • Oracle Park +15% under bias + early season pitching dominance (model total 7.5 but park adj to 6.8)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Giants +125 ML +3.2EV: Oracle edge vs Yankees missing 4 SPs + Volpe, model 46% win prob
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