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Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
Braves
Seattle Mariners
Mariners
Seattle Mariners
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +52.3% EV
52% Lean
52% Lean
SPREAD
Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 1.5
"ATL ML +119 +9.1pp edge (50.2% posterior vs 41.1% imp) + Over 8.0 +15.2pp (65.2% vs 50%)"
EV / $100
+4.8
Win Prob
50%
Edge
+0.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
50%
TOTAL over 8.0
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.4% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1033825 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 552 trades Kalshi: 552 trades Largest: $24960
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +143.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
33.3%
ML
200 / -200

Player Props Engine

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Atlanta Braves

Seattle Mariners

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -136 / 114 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -130 / 118 -
Value Line - -143 / 115 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (315) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (160) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-111)
De-Vigged Fair Value 172 / -172 -124 / 124 O/U -104 / 104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Atlanta Braves

H
Ha-Seong Kim
(SS) 10-day IL — Kim (finger) is moving his rehab assignment from Double-A Columbus to Triple-A Gwinnett this week, Lindsay Crosby of BravesToday.com reports.
10-Day-IL
D
Dylan Dodd
(RP) 15-day IL — Dodd (back) is expected to begin a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Gwinnett in the coming days, Lindsay Crosby of BravesToday.com reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ronald Acuna Jr.
(RF) 10-day IL — Manager Walt Weiss said Sunday that Acuna has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain of his left hamstring, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
10-Day-IL
S
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Tuesday that Schwellenbach (elbow) has yet to begin a throwing program and will not make his season debut until after the All-Star break, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hurston Waldrep
(SP) 15-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Tuesday that Waldrep (elbow) will throw a bullpen session in about a week and could be ready to rejoin the team in June, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Danny Young
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta transferred Young (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Burkhalter
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Smith-Shawver (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
J
Joey Wentz
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Wentz on the 60-day injured list Tuesday with a right ACL tear.
60-Day-IL
J
Jurickson Profar
(LF) Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Suspension
J
Joe Jimenez
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss acknowledged Wednesday that he's uncertain if Jimenez (knee) will be available to pitch at any point in 2026, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Seattle Mariners

M
Matt Brash
(RP) 15-day IL — Brash (lat) began playing catch Tuesday, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gabe Speier
(RP) 15-day IL — Speier picked up his first save of the season Friday against the Angels, allowing one unearned run with no hits or walks while striking out one across one inning.
15-Day-IL
B
Brendan Donovan
(3B) 10-day IL — Donovan (groin) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Arkansas on Tuesday, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
W
Will Wilson
(3B) 10-day IL — The Mariners selected Wilson's contract from Triple-A Tacoma on Monday.
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Vargas
(RP) 60-day IL — Vargas (lat) has suffered a setback in his recovery, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Bryce Miller
(SP) 15-day IL — Miller (oblique) is scheduled to make his next rehab start with High-A Everett on Wednesday, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
V
Victor Robles
(RF) 10-day IL — Robles (pectoral) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Tacoma on Sunday, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Teddy McGraw
(SP) day-to-day — McGraw is working his way back from right elbow issues, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Miles Mastrobuoni
(3B) 60-day IL — Seattle transferred Mastrobuoni (calf) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
P
Patrick Wisdom
(1B) 10-day IL — The Mariners placed Wisdom on the 10-day injured list Friday due to a left oblique strain, retroactive to Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
L
Logan Evans
(SP) 60-day IL — Evans underwent UCL reconstruction surgery with an internal brace Jan. 23 on his right elbow.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (315)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Ha-Seong Kim 10-Day-IL
Dylan Dodd 15-Day-IL
Matt Brash 15-Day-IL
Gabe Speier 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners

+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Atlanta Braves 52% Lean
"ATL ML +119 +9.1pp edge (50.2% posterior vs 41.1% imp) + Over 8.0 +15.2pp (65.2% vs 50%)"
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +0.2%
Line Movement
Current ML SEA -143/ATL +119, Spread SEA -143 (RL implied), Total 8.0
Movement No significant line movement detected
+9.1pp edge on ATL ML; whales contradict but model posterior anchors
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion posterior pegs ATL at 50.2% win prob (MC confirms) vs 41.1% market implied on +119 for +9.1pp edge, anchored by away EWMA form 5.5 > SEA 3.5 despite extreme $1M+ whale volume home. Total 8.0 crushed by omega 22.5/MC 19.7 proj with 65.2% over posterior (+15.2pp, 24.5 EV) but totals 48.7% WR demands caution. Equal -7.8% injury hits both sides, no pitchers/venue data degrades to PASS ML/spread, lean over.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Atlanta Braves 1.5
+4.8 EV 52% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
+9.9 EV 50% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+24.5 EV 65% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Atlanta Braves 119
  • Bayesian posterior 50.2% ATL win vs market 41.1% (+9.1pp edge)
SPREAD PICK
○ 52%
Atlanta Braves 1.5
  • MC sims show 50.2% ATL cover at even spread; +1.5 adds cushion vs omega 0.0
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 8.0
  • Posterior 65.2% over 8.0 vs market 50% (+15.2pp); MC proj 19.7 total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Braves +131 & +2.2: +11.5pp Bayesian edge + extreme whales ($291k) + MC 56% away win vs juiced Mariners line
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