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New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
57% Lean
57% Lean
SPREAD
New York Yankees New York Yankees 1.5
"Yankees +1.5: Bayesian +7.3pp edge at 57.3% cover vs a 50% market — Cole/Rasmussen makes this a coin flip, not a Rays -1.5 spot."
EV / $100
+9.4
Win Prob
50%
Edge
+7.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
50%
TOTAL over 7.0
51%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 1.5% divergence on ML with moderate signal.
Sharp: away
Whale Activity Detected
$208211 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (83% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 70 trades Kalshi: 13 trades Largest: $25843
Weather Impact
St. Petersburg: Light rain shower | 80°F | Wind 12 mph
⚠️ PRECIPITATION (Light rain shower): +18% under, +25% fumbles (NFL)
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
8.0
Edge: +1.0
Win Prob
39.6%
ML
152 / -152

Player Props Engine

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New York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -135 / 113 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -130 / 118 -
Value Line - -141 / 118 -
Market Consensus -1.5 (170) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.0 (102)
De-Vigged Fair Value 184 / -184 -124 / 124 O/U 109 / -109
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

A
Aaron Judge
(RF) 10-day IL — Judge's (calf) availability for the ALDS against the Rays "remains up in the air," Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that Schmidt (biceps) will be shut down for the rest of the season, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ryan Weathers
(SP) 15-day IL — Weathers (forearm) is not on the Yankees' AL Wild Card Series roster versus the Red Sox, Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
F
Fernando Cruz
(RP) 60-day IL — The Yankees transferred Cruz (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kervin Castro
(RP) 60-day IL — The Yankees transferred Castro (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL

Tampa Bay Rays

S
Shane McClanahan
(SP) out — Manager Kevin Cash said Wednesday that McClanahan (forearm) will not be included on the Rays' ALDS roster, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
Out
G
Griffin Jax
(SP) day-to-day — Jax was removed from Saturday's start against the Phillies due to a lower-back contusion, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jacob Melton
(LF) 60-day IL — The Rays recalled Melton from Triple-A Durham and placed him on the 60-day injured list Tuesday due to a right hamstring strain.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 60-day IL — Lux (shoulder) has resumed full baseball activity, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 60-day IL — Uceta (shoulder) is playing catch from 75 feet, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
J
Jonathan Heasley
(RP) 60-day IL — Heasley was returned to the major-league roster and placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right elbow stress reaction.
60-Day-IL
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (170)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Aaron Judge 10-Day-IL
Clarke Schmidt 15-Day-IL
Shane McClanahan Out
Griffin Jax Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: New York Yankees 1.5 (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-02T08:02:48.158951 UTC

Whale signals extreme on Yankees ($207K volume, 83% confidence) and sharp money leans away, but the line hasn't moved — suggesting the market is absorbing sharp action. Injury impact favors Yankees (-1.8% net).

Moneyline: New York Yankees (+117) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-02T08:02:48.020319 UTC

Whale signals extreme on Yankees ($207K volume, 83% confidence) and sharp money leans away. At +117 odds, the implied probability is 46.1%, but our model sees a 50%+ chance given injury impact favoring Yankees.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-02T04:54:55.781356 UTC

Simpson is a high-contact leadoff hitter (.306 avg) with day-to-day status but expected to play; over 0.5 hits has ~70% probability based on season average

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

+9.39 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Yankees 57% Lean
"Yankees +1.5: Bayesian +7.3pp edge at 57.3% cover vs a 50% market — Cole/Rasmussen makes this a coin flip, not a Rays -1.5 spot."
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 42%
Edge +7.9%
Line Movement
Current Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 / ML -136 / Total 7.0
Movement No significant movement detected
Tampa Bay is 55-26 at home — elite home split Yankees are 47-34 on the road — solid but not elite Aaron Judge OUT (10-day IL) — removes Yankees' biggest offensive weapon Rays injury impact worse than Yankees: -8.7% vs -6.9% net away advantage Tropicana Field indoor environment negates rain/wind weather flags Pitching stats unavailable — elevated uncertainty on Cole/Rasmussen matchup
At +113, a 50.3% win rate yields +$7.14 per $100 wagered versus the de-vigged 42.4% market price. Positive EV exists, but the hard ML filter requires 51.95% confidence for +113 odds; 50.3% is short, so no units are assigned to the moneyline.
FULL ANALYSIS
The play is New York +1.5: OMEGA's independent line is a pick'em and the fused model gives the Yankees 57.3% to cover, while DraftKings prices Tampa Bay -1.5 at near-even juice. Pinnacle's spread fair value agrees at 64.8% away, and sharp money plus $207K of whale volume is on the road side. Tampa Bay's 55-26 home record is the market anchor, but the Rays' injury impact is actually worse than the Yankees' even with Aaron Judge out. Total 7.0 is a hard pass — 51.1% over at -110 with 14.1% push probability is below breakeven.
SHARP MONEY
Pinnacle de-vigged spread fair value is 64.8% away while DraftKings hangs Rays -1.5. Sharp/public ML divergence is 1.5% toward away, and 35 profitable Polymarket wallets put $207,590 on the away side (EXTREME volume tier). No reverse line movement yet, but the cross-signal alignment favors New York.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Yankees 1.5
+9.4 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
+7.1 EV 50%
TOTAL over 7.0
-2.5 EV 51%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
New York Yankees 113
  • calibrated gives Yankees 50.3% at +113, above the 46.9% breakeven, but below the hard 5pp confidence filter needed to bet a plus-money underdog
SPREAD PICK
○ 57%
New York Yankees 1.5
  • calibrated spread posterior is 57.3% away cover vs 50.0% market, with Market Consensus fair value at 64.8% away and $207K of whale volume on New York
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 51%
OVER 7.0
  • Over posterior is 51.1%, below the 52.38% breakeven at -110, and 14.1% push probability makes the total a pass
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Whales bet $207K on Yankees ML but data is degraded — lean under 7.0 and Yankees +1.5 for tiny units, or pass.
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