Home › NHL › Edmonton Oilers @ Utah Mammoth
NHL
Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton Oilers
Oilers
5 - 6
Final
Utah Mammoth
Mammoth
Utah Mammoth
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
59% Lean
59% Lean
SPREAD
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers +142
"Omega even spread vs -142 market = 142pt edge to Edmonton +120 dog; MC 45.6% cover despite altitude"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-4.4%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Edmonton Oilers None
62%
TOTAL under 6.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +142.0
Total
19.0
Edge: +12.5
Win Prob
33.6%
ML
198 / -198

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Edmonton Oilers

Utah Mammoth

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

Edmonton Oilers

J
Jason Dickinson
(C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Connor Ingram
(G) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
L
Leon Draisaitl
(C) Injured Reserve — Draisaitl (lower body) has not started skating but is expected to get on the ice soon, Tony Brar of Oilers TV reports Monday.
Injured Reserve
Z
Zach Hyman
(LW) out — Hyman (undisclosed) won't play on the Oilers' upcoming three-game road trip, which begins Tuesday versus the Mammoth, Ryan Rishaug of TSN reports.
Out
M
Mattias Janmark
(C) Injured Reserve — Janmark (undisclosed) underwent season-ending surgery on Friday, per Mark Spector of Sportsnet.
Injured Reserve

Utah Mammoth

J
Jack McBain
(C) out — out
Out
B
Barrett Hayton
(C) out — out
Out
Box Score
FINAL
Edmonton Oilers
Oilers
5
-
Utah Mammoth
Mammoth
6
Edmonton Oilers +142
59% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Edmonton Oilers @ Utah Mammoth

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Edmonton Oilers 59% Lean
"Omega even spread vs -142 market = 142pt edge to Edmonton +120 dog; MC 45.6% cover despite altitude"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.4%
Line Movement
Open No open line provided
Current Utah -142 ML / +180 spread / O/U 6.5
Movement No movement data
ALTITUDE FACTOR (Salt Lake City): Visiting teams average -1.3 pts/game Edmonton missing Draisaitl/Hyman (major scoring loss) Utah missing McBain/Hayton (depth hit) Recent H2H: Model 0-2 vs Utah
Negative EV on Utah ML; model sees even matchup, away dog offers value if altitude neutralized
Model: 49.1% win rate | n=273 — NHL 49.1% (N=273); vs Utah 1-12, vs Edmonton 5-8; Lean ML profitable but overconfident
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega even spread (0.0) vs market Utah -142 shows massive 142pt discrepancy; MC confirms 45.6% Edmonton cover with injuries offsetting altitude edge. Model 1-12 vs Utah but Lean ML tier profitable at 56.4%. Totals wrecked by model projecting 19 (obvious error); fade to 5.5-6.0 range.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Edmonton Oilers +142
+2.1 EV 59% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Edmonton Oilers None
+3.8 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL under 6.5
+1.2 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 59%
Edmonton Oilers -135
  • McDavid (126 shots leader) carries depleted Oilers vs Utah missing Weegar/Hayton/McBain
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Utah Mammoth 1.5
  • Edmonton missing Hyman/Draisaitl (40% forward scoring) drops model win prob to 60%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 5.5
  • Combined injuries to top forwards/goal production pushes model total to 5.0
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
McDavid elevated usage vs Utah injuries (model 60% EDM win, +3.1 EV ML) but data scarcity caps at 59% conf
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