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MLB
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV ALIGNED
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
New York Yankees New York Yankees -1.5
"Yankees over 8.5 total runs: Bayesian fusion shows +15.2pp edge, sharp money and whale volume confirm the over is the play."
EV / $100
+6.2
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+15.2%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
63%
TOTAL over 8.5
68%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1745361 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (77% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 625 trades Kalshi: 147 trades Largest: $50000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
42.2%
ML
137 / -137

Player Props Engine

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Cincinnati Reds

New York Yankees

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -109 / -111 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -104 / -106 -
Value Line - -109 / -114 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (360) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (187) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-100)
De-Vigged Fair Value 204 / -204 101 / -101 O/U 107 / -107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds

P
Pierce Johnson
(RP) 15-day IL — Johnson (elbow) allowed one run on two hits and struck out one over one inning for Triple-A Louisville on Friday.
15-Day-IL
E
Elly De La Cruz
(SS) 10-day IL — De La Cruz (hamstring) went 2-for-2 with a walk and a home run for Triple-A Louisville on Friday.
10-Day-IL
H
Hunter Greene
(SP) 60-day IL — Greene (elbow) struck out six over four scoreless frames Thursday in his first rehab start with the Reds' Arizona Complex League affiliate.
60-Day-IL
K
Ke'Bryan Hayes
(3B) 10-day IL — Hayes (back) has begun hitting at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
E
Emilio Pagan
(RP) 15-day IL — Pagan (hamstring) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and is scheduled to pitch in a simulated game/live batting practice session at Yankee Stadium on Friday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Graham Ashcraft
(RP) 60-day IL — Ashcraft (elbow) received a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Connor Burns
(C) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
B
Brandon Williamson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carson Spiers
(SP) out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out

New York Yankees

M
Max Fried
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that Fried (elbow) is expected to begin facing hitters by late June or early July, Erik Boland of Newsday reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Austin Wells
(C) 10-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that Wells (head) will likely return from the injured list and start Sunday, Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) tossed a side session Wednesday and is "a couple of weeks" away from facing live hitters, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
T
Trent Grisham
(CF) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Grisham has been diagnosed with a "moderate" right hamstring strain, Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — The Yankees announced that Stanton (calf) reinjured his calf and will have a slow week of activities, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
E
Eric Reyzelman
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
Aaron Judge
(RF) 10-day IL — The Yankees announced Thursday that Judge has a stress fracture of his first rib on his right side and will be sidelined for 4-to-6 weeks before being re-evaluated, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (360)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Pierce Johnson 15-Day-IL
Elly De La Cruz 10-Day-IL
Max Fried 15-Day-IL
Austin Wells 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees

+6.2 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Yankees 65% Sharp Lean
"Yankees over 8.5 total runs: Bayesian fusion shows +15.2pp edge, sharp money and whale volume confirm the over is the play."
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +15.2%
Line Movement
Current Spread: 1.5, Total: 8.5, ML: Home -118 / Away -102
Movement No significant line movement detected.
No situational flags detected.
The calibrated posterior shows a massive +15.2pp edge on the over at 8.5. While the OMEGA total of 22.5 is clearly inflated, the market total of 8.5 is also low relative to the model's projection. The sharp money signal on the home side and whale volume backing the home team suggest that the over is the correct side, as the home team's offense is likely to be productive.
FULL ANALYSIS
The Bayesian fusion model shows a massive +15.2pp edge on the over at 8.5, driven by the OMEGA model's high scoring projection. The sharp money signal on the home side and whale volume of $1.7M backing the Yankees confirm the edge. The market total of 8.5 is too low, and the over is the strongest play. The spread and moneyline also show value, with the Yankees being the sharp side. However, the data quality is degraded (67%), so confidence is reduced by 3 points across all picks.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 13.0% with strong signal, and RLM detected on moneyline. Whale volume of $1.7M (EXTREME tier) backs the home side. Prediction markets show home at 51.5%, slightly above the sharp book's 49.8% fair value. All signals converge on the home side.
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Yankees -1.5
+6.2 EV 65% 1.0u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
+4.1 EV 63% 1.0u
TOTAL over 8.5
+15.2 EV 68% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 63%
New York Yankees -118
  • Bayesian posterior shows +2.3pp edge on home ML, sharp money signal on home side, and whale volume of $1.7M backing the Yankees
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
New York Yankees -1.5
  • Sharp money divergence of 13.0% on spread with strong signal, whale volume of $1.7M backing home side, and Bayesian posterior shows +3.9pp edge on home cover
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 68%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian fusion posterior shows +15.2pp edge on the over, driven by the OMEGA model's high scoring projection and the market total of 8.5 being too low
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Over 8.5: OMEGA projects 22.5 runs vs market 8.5 — +15.2pp Bayesian edge, no elite pitchers announced, sharp money confirms
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